South Korea has a 77% chance of advancing to the World Cup round of 32... The expected points for the group stage are 4.5 points

*This content was translated by AI.

• Statistical Media Football Meets Data Revealed

Simulation results show that the South Korean national soccer team has a 77% chance of passing Group A of the 2026 FIFA 2026 FIFA North and Central America World Cup group stage and heading to the round of 32 tournaments.

According to the data released by Football Meets Data, a soccer statistics media outlet, on the 3rd (Korea Standard Time), South Korea has a 77 percent chance of passing Group A, which belongs to Mexico, the Czech Republic and South Africa, the second highest in Group A after Mexico (90.3 percent).

From this tournament, it will be expanded from the previous 32-team participation and 16-team tournament system to 48-team participation and 32-team tournament system. As a result, not only the first and second place in each group, but also the top eight teams with good performance among the third place in the 12 groups can advance to the round of 32 tournaments.

As a result of the simulation, Korea's probability of ranking second in the group was the highest at 30.8 percent, followed by 27.1 percent in the group, 25.6 percent in the first place, and 16.4 percent in the fourth place. The media analyzed that even if they fall to third place in the group, they are likely to qualify for the round of 32 by comparing their performance with the third-place teams in other groups.

As a result of the simulation, Korea's expected points in the group stage averaged 4.5 points. The media's simulation results showed that he is likely to achieve one win, two draws (five points) from one win, one draw and one loss (four points). Mexico scored 5.8 and the Czech Republic and South Africa scored 4.1 and 2.3, respectively.

Mexico had the highest probability of ranking in Group A at 49%, followed by second place (27.5%), third place (16.6%), and fourth place (6.9%). The Czech Republic had the highest probability of third place at 31%, followed by second place (28%), fourth place (21.1%), and first place (20%). South Africa, considered the weakest, had the highest probability of ranking fourth in the group at 55.7%. It was followed by third place (25.3 percent), second place (13.7 percent), and first place (5.4 percent).

Meanwhile, Football Meets Data predicted that the third-ranked team in the group with three points and zero difference in the group stage of this tournament will have a 96.3% chance of advancing to the round of 32. Even if they only have one win and two losses in the group stage, if they don't record a minus in the difference in gains and losses, the chances of advancing to the round of 32 are very high.

It is predicted that the probability of advancing to the round of 32 will reach 99.4% even if the difference between gains and losses is pushed to -3 if the group has one win, one draw and one loss. For the Korean national team, which has an average expected point of 4.5 points, it can also be interpreted that the possibility of advancing to the round of 32 is very high even if it is pushed to third place in the group.

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*This content was translated by AI.