'Probability of South Korea Reaching 2026 World Cup Round of 32 is 53.4%': Hong Myung-bo's Team Faces Uncertainty in Achieving 'Primary Goal'

*This content was translated by AI.

The South Korea national football team is projected to have a 53.4% probability of advancing from the group stage of the 2026 FIFA North America World Cup, according to an analysis by a specialized forecasting firm. This implies that even the 'primary goal' championed by head coach Hong Myung-bo—reaching the Round of 32—cannot be guaranteed.

According to an analysis of the 2026 FIFA North America World Cup group stage released on the 20th (Korean time) by the U.S. analysis outlet LottoWire, South Korea's probability of advancing from the group stage is predicted to be 53.4%. While this ranks second in Group A behind Mexico (79.8%), the margin over Czechia (51.5%) is less than 2 percentage points. South Africa had the lowest probability at 15.4%. In this tournament, the top two teams from each group advance to the Round of 32, and the top eight teams among the twelve third-place finishers also qualify for the Round of 32 tournament.

Although second-highest in Group A, the probability barely exceeds 50%, and there is little difference compared to Czechia. Despite South Korea ranking 25th in the FIFA rankings and Czechia 41st, both are assigned similar probabilities of reaching the Round of 32. In fact, the probability of finishing first in the group is higher for Czechia at 26.6% compared to South Korea's 22.3%. Mexico's probability of finishing first in the group stands at 44.8%.

This also suggests that the challenge of achieving the 'primary goal' set by head coach Hong Myung-bo will not be easy. Earlier, during the press conference announcing the final roster for the North America World Cup, Coach Hong stated, "The primary goal is to reach the Round of 32 with a favorable position (ranking). If we do that, anything could happen next. I believe we could even rise to positions we never imagined." However, forecasts now indicate that the competition to reach the Round of 32 will be far from easy.

In light of these expectations, the dynamics of Group A have essentially been condensed into a 'one strong, two medium, one weak' atmosphere. Host nation Mexico, which also holds the highest FIFA ranking, is widely regarded as the sole strong team, with probabilities for both finishing first in the group and advancing from the group stage significantly ahead of South Korea and Czechia. Its expected points total of 5.5 also surpasses the 4.2 points each projected for South Korea and Czechia.

LottoWire explained, "Mexico is considered an overwhelmingly strong team in Group A, with approximately a 45% probability of finishing first in the group and an approximately 80% probability of reaching the Round of 16." It added, "The competition for second place is fierce. South Korea and Czechia have similar levels in both expected points and expected goals. A close contest is anticipated."

Meanwhile, Hong Myung-bo's team has begun its World Cup preparations at a pre-camp in Salt Lake City, USA. It will play friendly matches against Trinidad and Tobago on the 31st at 10 a.m. and El Salvador on the 4th of next month at 10 a.m. Afterward, the team will move to the 'decisive battleground' of Mexico, where it will face Czechia on the 12th at 11 a.m., Mexico on the 19th at 10 a.m., and South Africa on the 25th at 10 a.m., in that order.

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*This content was translated by AI.