'Korea's 32-team race is effectively over': Hong Myung-bo's team's chance of advancing to the round of 32 stands at a staggering 92.74%

*This content was translated by AI.

• OPTA adjusts probabilities immediately after victory over Czech Republic Korea's 32-team advancement probability rises from 70.62% to 92.74%

A forecast from a professional football statistics firm indicates that the South Korean national football team has a staggering 92.74% probability of advancing to the round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America. This figure suggests that the only remaining question is whether the team will finish in the top two of its group, and that advancing to the round of 32 has become virtually certain.

Football statistics media outlet Opta adjusted South Korea's probability of advancing to the round of 32 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup to 92.74% immediately after South Korea defeated the Czech Republic 2-1 in the Group A first match held at the Guadalajara Stadium in Zapopan, Mexico, on the 12th (Korea time). The probability, which stood at 70.62% before the match, rose by more than 22 percentage points following the victory over the Czech Republic.

Even though two more group stage matches remain, South Korea's probability of advancing to the round of 32 is set at over 92% despite having secured only one victory so far, as the door to the tournament's knockout stage has widened significantly for this edition.

In previous tournaments, 32 teams competed in the group stage divided into eight groups, with only the top two teams from each group advancing to the round of 16 knockout stage. However, this tournament has changed to a format where 48 teams compete in the round of 32 knockout stage. In addition to the top two teams from each group, the top eight teams among the 12 third-placed teams with the best records will also advance to the round of 32 knockout stage. This means that 67% of the teams participating in the main tournament will pass the group stage.

Naturally, in the group stage, securing just three points is now enough to have a realistic chance of advancing to the knockout stage via at least a third-place finish in the group. In fact, football statistics media outlet Football Mitz Data previously released an analysis in April based on simulations showing that even with just three points (one win and two losses, or three draws) in the three group stage matches and a goal difference of zero, there is a staggering 96.3% probability of advancing to the round of 32. In the case of four points (one win, one draw, and one loss), the probability of advancing to the round of 32 reaches a staggering 99.4% even with a goal difference of -3.

Against this backdrop, South Korea secured three points from the very first group stage match, causing its probability of advancing to the round of 32 of the World Cup to rise sharply. Moreover, the fact that South Korea's final group stage opponent is South Africa, widely regarded as the weakest team in the group, is also cited as a key factor behind the significant increase in South Korea's probability of advancing to the round of 32, given that the team has already secured three points.

As the probability of advancing to the round of 32 rose, the probability of South Korea advancing to at least the round of 16 knockout stage also gradually increased. The probability of advancing to the round of 16 rose from 33.72% to 43.94%, the quarter-finals from 12.53% to 16.11%, the semi-finals from 4.05% to 4.89%, the final from 1.34% to 1.57%, and the championship from 0.4% to 0.46%.

In Group A, Mexico's probability of advancing to the round of 32 has risen to 98.44% after defeating South Africa 2-0. In contrast, the Czech Republic's probability has dropped to 59.58%, and South Africa's to 23.95%. South Korea will play its second group stage match against Mexico on the 19th at 10 a.m. in Guadalajara, Mexico, and its final group stage match against South Africa on the 25th at 10 a.m. in Monterrey, Mexico.

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*This content was translated by AI.