Why Kim Do-young's value rose from 400 million won to An Woo-jin's 6 billion won and Ha Hyun-seung's staggering 1.1 billion to 1.5 billion won will finally be unveiled today (the 21st) [Ryu Sun-kyu's Bizball]

*This content was translated by AI.

The 2027 KBO Rookie Draft will be held today (the 21st) at 2 p.m.

Professional baseball has surpassed 10 million spectators for three consecutive years, and fans' interest has expanded beyond the regular season to the rookie draft. Sports specialty channels are broadcasting the draft live, while TV and YouTube are flooded with content on projected draft rankings and analyses of promising prospects.

The YouTube channel "KBO Open" has been broadcasting the rookie draft live since 2024, attracting a large number of viewers. Last year, the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO)'s official YouTube channel, "KBO Live," also began live coverage, confirming the high interest fans have in the draft.

The KBO abolished the first-round draft based on home regions starting with the 2023 rookie draft and reintroduced a nationwide full draft. This marks the fifth year since the implementation of the full draft. Unlike the 2025 rookie draft held two years ago, which received evaluations as "unprecedented," scouts from various teams generally assess that the overall weight of candidates in this year's first round has somewhat declined.

This is because some players who were likely to be selected in the first round have signed contracts with Major League Baseball (MLB) teams and are not participating in the draft, while among the promising prospects who had high expectations before the season, there are also players who failed to grow as expected due to injuries and poor performance.

However, Ha Hyun-seung, a left-handed pitcher from Busan High School who is the most likely candidate for the first overall pick, is an exception. Ha Hyun-seung is evaluated as not only having the highest level among this year's draft participants but also as one of the top talents among all high school pitchers in history. This is why more attention is focused on how much his signing bonus will be and whether he can challenge the all-time record than on whether he will be selected first overall.

Ha Hyun-seung's signing bonus has two benchmarks: one is Jang Jae-young's 900 million won, the highest rookie signing bonus in Kiwoom's history, and the other is the KBO League's all-time record of 1 billion won received by Han Gi-ju in 2006.

Kiwoom awarded Jang Jae-young 900 million won in 2021. Kiwoom offered the highest rookie contract amount in club history to Jang Jae-young, who recorded a top speed of 157 km/h during high school and attracted interest from Major League Baseball clubs. This was an amount 3 million won higher than the previous club rookie record of 6 billion won set by An Woo-jin in 2018. It was a bold contract that placed a high value on Jang Jae-young's potential and possibility of advancing overseas. However, it did not exceed Han Ki-ju's 1 billion won.

That was a formidable barrier that Han Ki-ju's 1 billion won contract easily surpassed. Noted since his time at Gwangju Dongseong High School for his fastball exceeding 150 km/h, Han Ki-ju entered the professional ranks with a groundbreaking 1 billion won deal. His contract instantly propelled the rookie market price upward. Before Han Ki-ju, the highest rookie contract was 700 million won, shared by Im Sun-dong and Kim Jin-woo. KIA offered Han Ki-ju 1 billion won, which was 3 million won more than the previous record. This highlights just how overwhelmingly talented Han Ki-ju was evaluated to be at the time.

Ha Hyun-seung is also a player capable of redefining the standard for rookie signing bonuses, 21 years after Han Ki-ju in 2006. He possesses the rarity of being a towering left-handed pitcher standing at 194 cm, combined with a fastball reaching speeds over 150 km/h and game management skills proven in international tournaments. Additionally, there is symbolic significance in his decision to reject a 0.3 billion won offer from the New York Yankees and choose to remain in Korea.

Therefore, Ha Hyun-seung's signing bonus is likely to exceed the level of matching Jang Jae-young's 900 million won or Han Ki-ju's 1 billion won. If a new record is set, the starting point would be 1.1 billion won, which is 1 billion won higher than the previous highest amount. This is a realistic figure that balances the symbolic significance of breaking the record with consideration for the existing rookie signing bonus market.

However, considering the recent atmosphere, it appears highly likely that the amount will even exceed 1.1 billion won. Ha Hyun-seung made a start in the final match against Japan at the Asian Youth Baseball Championship on the 13th, recording seven innings with one hit allowed, eight strikeouts, and a scoreless shutout victory. As the ace who led Korea to an undefeated championship, he once again proved his value just before the draft.

The signing bonus for a top-tier prospect reflects not only his skills but also the atmosphere and symbolism at the time of the contract. His dominant pitching performance against Japan in an international tournament final, along with the result of winning the championship, are powerful factors that can drive up Ha Hyun-seung's market value.

Jang Jae-young and Han Ki-ju each increased their signing bonuses by 3 million won compared to previous standards. Applying the same increase to Ha Hyun-seung would result in 1.3 billion won. If one also considers the symbolism of rejecting a 0.3 billion won offer from Major League Baseball and the premium for winning an international tournament, 1.5 billion won — which is 500 million won more than the previous highest amount — can be viewed as a negotiable upper limit.

Attention is also focused on the signing bonus for infielder Kim Ji-woo of Seoul, who is mentioned as the overall second-round candidate.

Kim Ji-woo is likely to be selected by Doosan, which holds the overall second-round draft pick. What criteria will Doosan use to determine Kim Ji-woo's signing bonus?

Doosan's highest rookie contract fee in the club's history is 6 billion won, received by Kim Myung-je in 2005. Narrowing the scope to position players, the highest amount is 500 million won, paid to Kang Hyuk in 1999. Kang Hyuk's contract fee stands as both a Doosan club record and the highest rookie contract for a position player in KBO League history.

Since the 10th-team system was launched in 2015, infielder Na Seung-yeob, who joined Lotte in 2021, received 500 million won, tying him with Kang Hyuk. For Doosan, it can set Kim Ji-woo's signing bonus at the highest amount for position players, 500 million won, and the highest amount for the entire club, 6 billion won.

Kim Ji-woo, like Ha Hyun-seung, also attracted interest from Major League Baseball clubs. Although he received contract offers worth up to $1.7 million, he chose the KBO League over the United States. Considering both the value assigned by overseas teams and the symbolism of staying in Korea, it is understandable that a significant premium was attached to his signing bonus.

However, the situation is different from Ha Hyun-seung. Kim Ji-woo did not get to fully showcase his skills this year due to a finger fracture that kept him out of major tournaments. He also failed to make the roster for the Asian Junior Baseball Championship representative team. This contrasts with Ha Hyun-seung, who significantly boosted his draft value just before the draft by winning an international tournament and throwing a shutout in the final.

The market for signing bonuses for position player rookies has also been more conservative than that for pitchers. In the history of the KBO League, most of the top rookie signing bonuses have gone to pitchers.

The 400 million won contract of Kim Do-young, who joined KIA in 2022, can also serve as a benchmark. Although Kim Do-young was considered one of the top free agent batters available under the 10th-team system, his signing bonus amounted to only 400 million won.

The size of Ha Hyun-seung's signing bonus could also influence negotiations between Kim Ji-woo and Doosan, as the first overall pick's bonus sets the benchmark for the rookie market in that year. If Ha Hyun-seung receives a signing bonus significantly exceeding 1 billion won, approaching 1.5 billion won, the negotiation baseline for Kim Ji-woo, who holds the second overall pick, could naturally rise as well.

Ultimately, the leading digit of the signing bonus will depend on how Doosan evaluates Kim Ji-woo's value. If the team places significant weight on his injury history and lack of game experience, the figure may fall short of 400 million won. However, if it fully recognizes his worth as the second overall pick and the symbolic significance of turning down a Major League Baseball offer, a contract of 500 million won—matching the highest amount ever paid to a position player in the KBO League—is possible. Furthermore, with Ha Hyun-seung's record-breaking deal lifting the entire rookie market, and if Doosan assesses Kim Ji-woo as a franchise player who will anchor the team's future, it could even consider an offer reaching 6 billion won, matching the highest contract ever awarded by the club to Kim Myeong-je.

Over the past two decades, the contract sizes of KBO League free agents have increased significantly. Just before Han Ki-ju joined the team at the end of 2004, Samsung signed a four-year FA deal with Shim Jung-soo starting in 2005 for up to 6 billion won. At the time, it was the highest FA contract ever.

In 2026, Hanwha signed a non-FA multi-year contract with Noh Si-hwan for a total of 30.7 billion won starting in 2027. This is the longest and largest contract in KBO League history, combining both FA and non-FA multi-year deals. In about two decades, the scale of top contracts has grown more than fivefold, from 6 billion won to 30.7 billion won.

On the other hand, the highest rookie contract bonus has not advanced even one step during the same period. The 1 billion won received by Han Ki-ju in 2006 remains the record high.

The biggest difference lies in the negotiation structure. FA players can negotiate with all teams after becoming eligible. If multiple teams compete to sign a player, the player's price naturally rises. In contrast, rookie players can only negotiate contracts with the team that drafted them. This is a single-party negotiation structure without public competition.

Article 108, Section 9 of the KBO Baseball Regulations stipulates that a player who submits an application to participate in the rookie draft but refuses to sign with the selected team is prohibited from signing with any KBO club for two years from the date of the draft. The only exception applies when a high school graduate chooses not to sign in order to enroll in a university.

If a rookie player fails to agree with the team's offer and the contract ultimately falls through, they cannot join the KBO League for two years. This places a significant burden on the player. Under such a structure, the drafting team is inevitably placed in a relatively advantageous position during signing bonus negotiations.

There are several reasons why amateur prospects have been heading straight to Major League Baseball in recent times. While the primary factors may be the challenge of competing on a bigger stage and expectations for better development environments, another factor influencing players' decisions is that rookie contract amounts offered by KBO teams are lower than the offers presented by overseas clubs.

Once this draft concludes, a more intriguing "second draft" begins: contract negotiations where the valuations of teams and players are revealed through concrete figures.

Regarding contracts for high school players scheduled to graduate, there is a standard that the agreement must be finalized within 30 days following the draft. Therefore, the signing bonuses for Ha Hyun-seung and Kim Ji-woo will also be determined within one month after the draft.

Will the contracts of these two players create a 'new normal' in the KBO rookie market, or will they merely reaffirm the existing bonus payment practices that have continued for over 20 years? Attention is now focused on the number negotiations that will begin after the draft concludes.

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*This content was translated by AI.