'Japan must win for South Korea to take revenge' The incredible scenarios for a two-game-losing streak Korean baseball team's path to the final... If Australia loses by one run, a four-run victory over Taiwan is required [2026 APBC]

*This content was translated by AI.View Original

The opportunity to break the chain of winless streaks against Japan that has continued for 11 years still remains. However, for South Korean baseball to take revenge on Japan, paradoxically, Japan's victory is needed first. South Korea, which collapsed consecutively against Australia and Japan, has fallen into a complex web of scenarios.

The South Korean national team led by Manager Choi Won-ho (53) lost 5-9 to Japan in the second preliminary match of the 2026 Asia Pro Baseball Championship (APBC) held at Tokyo Dome in Tokyo, Japan, on the 13th.

This marks a two-game losing streak following a shocking comeback loss 7-8 to Australia the previous day (the 12th). South Korea's last victory against Japan in an international tournament featuring professional players was a 4-3 win in the semifinals of the 2015 Premier12. Since then, they have been stuck in a 12-game winless streak (one draw, 11 losses) over 11 years. In the APBC as well, following losses in the preliminary round and final in 2017 and 2023 respectively, this loss brings their record to five consecutive defeats.

There were opportunities for victory on this day as well. South Korea's starter Kim Jin-wook (24, Lotte Giants) held on with two runs allowed over five innings, but the team was trailing 1-5 through the seventh inning after allowing four home runs to the Japanese lineup. In the top of the eighth inning, Han Dong-hee (27, Lotte) hit an RBI single and Kim Hwi-jip (24, NC Dinos) hit a dramatic tying three-run homer with a carry distance of 120 meters, creating a 5-5 tie. However, in the bottom of the eighth inning, Kim Young-woo (21, LG Twins) allowed a decisive three-run homer to Muneyama Rui (23, Rakuten Golden Eagles), causing the team to collapse again. Just like in the previous game against Australia, the bullpen failed to protect a hard-fought comeback by the lineup.

Japan moved into sole first place in the preliminaries with two wins after defeating Taiwan 5-0 and then beating South Korea. With Taiwan's 6-4 victory over Australia earlier that day, Taiwan and Australia both stood at one win and one loss, while South Korea remained at the bottom with two losses.

So, has South Korea's chance of advancing to the final disappeared? A slim hope still remains. This tournament features a round-robin format where South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Australia each play once against the others, with the top two teams competing for the championship in the final at 7 p.m. on the 15th. For South Korea to advance to the final, Japan must beat Australia at noon on the 14th, and South Korea must also definitely defeat Taiwan at 7 p.m. on the same day.

If Japan loses to Australia, South Korea's advancement to the final becomes impossible. This is because Japan and Australia would both record two wins and one loss, while South Korea would be stuck with one win and two losses even if they beat Taiwan.

On the other hand, if Japan beats Australia, Japan will secure a spot in the final with three wins. If South Korea beats Taiwan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia will all tie with one win and two losses. In this case, the remaining team to advance to the final will be determined by comparing Team Quality Balance (TQB) according to tournament regulations.

TQB is a figure calculated by subtracting runs allowed per inning from runs scored per inning, rather than a simple run differential per game. The 2026 APBC reflects total runs scored and allowed, as well as offensive and defensive innings, across all three preliminary games. If TQB is also tied, rankings are determined by Earned Run TQB (ER-TQB) based on earned runs, followed by team batting average.

The required winning margin for South Korea varies depending on the result of the game between Japan and Australia. Assuming both games end in regular innings without extra innings or a forfeit, if Japan beats Australia by one run, South Korea must beat Taiwan by at least four runs.

If Japan wins by two runs, South Korea needs a three-run victory; if Japan wins by three runs, South Korea needs a two-run victory. If Japan defeats Australia by four or more runs, South Korea can advance to the final with just a one-run win over Taiwan. However, if offensive and defensive innings differ due to extra innings, a forfeit, or a walk-off win by South Korea, the required run differential may also change.

Ultimately, South Korea finds itself in a position where it must cheer for Japan's victory on the 14th. If they break through the scenarios and advance to the final, they will face Japan again at Tokyo Dome at 7 p.m. on the 15th. For South Korea, which lost to Japan in the finals in both 2017 and 2023, the opportunity remains to challenge for their first championship and a victory over Japan in 11 years in this third final matchup.

South Korea will play its final preliminary match against Taiwan at 7 p.m. on the 14th.

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*This content was translated by AI.View Original