'Iran Shock Boycott' World Cup Chaos inevitable, and the search for an alternative team has also been twisted

*This content was translated by AI.

With the opening of the 2026 FIFA 2026 FIFA North and Central America World Cup just three months away, a "large bomb" has exploded. In the aftermath of the U.S.-Israel airstrikes, Iran's national soccer team's absence from the World Cup is virtually approaching. Since there are no clear regulations on alternative teams and there are so many variables such as the timing of the Iranian Football Association's expression of its intention not to participate, a major chaos is expected to be inevitable until just before the opening of the World Cup.

Earlier, Iranian Sports and Youth Minister Ahmad Donyamali said in an interview with state TV on the 11th (Korea time), "As the corrupt regime (US) assassinated our leader (Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei), it is impossible to participate in the World Cup under any circumstances." Earlier, Mehdi Taj, president of the Iranian Football Association, said, "It seems difficult to expect to participate in the World Cup," but added, "The final decision should be made by those responsible." Since then, the Iranian government has expressed its intention to boycott the World Cup for the first time.

With less than 100 days until the opening of the competition, Minister Donyamali's bombshell declaration has become a major controversy around the world. The news of Iran's absence from the World Cup was eventually reported in breaking news through major foreign media around the world. If Iran's absence from the tournament is finally confirmed by FIFA, it will remain as the first case of not participating in the World Cup finals in 76 years since France and India during the 1950 World Cup in Brazil.

Given that Iran's women's soccer team recently participated in the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) Women's Asian Cup, the aftermath of the war is not the only reason for boycott. The World Cup will be co-hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico, where all three group matches of the Iranian national team will be held in the United States. If they reach the round of 32 as the second-ranked team in the group, a showdown between the U.S. and Iran could take place in the U.S.

U.S. President Donald Trump expressed his intention to "welcome the Iranian national soccer team to the World Cup," but various problems, including the Iranian national team's entry into the U.S. and safety there, are bound to follow. Moreover, participating in the World Cup in the United States at a time when the supreme leader was killed in an attack by the United States is inevitably difficult for the Iranian government to accept.

Naturally, the world's soccer community began to draw attention to the aftermath of the "Iran Boycott." The key is how and who fills Iran's position. Iran was in Group G along with Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand. If Iran's absence from the World Cup is confirmed, the priority is to find an "alternative team" to operate the tournament under the 48-nation system.

There is no clear regulation on how to determine the replacement team. However, there is only a rule that the maximum measures should be taken at FIFA's discretion, and that an alternative team can be found as part of that. Iraq is currently the most likely team to be mentioned. The team advanced to the Intercontinental Playoff (PO) by beating the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the fifth Asian qualifying round for the World Cup. Of the 8.5 tickets allocated to Asia, 0.5 are for Iraq.

Iraq was part of the intercontinental PO pass 2. If they win the final against the winner of the Bolivia-Suri South match, they can head to the World Cup finals. However, if Iran's absence from the World Cup is confirmed, Iraq, which is currently the only team in Asia that has a chance of advancing to the World Cup, is likely to advance to the World Cup finals as an alternative team. Instead, the UAE, which lost to Iraq earlier and failed to advance to the intercontinental PO, is considered a strong scenario for now.

The problem is that when Iran's absence from the World Cup has not been finalized, intercontinental POs will be held first, and Iraq will first qualify for the World Cup on its own. At that time, the UAE, which survived the last Asian qualifying round except Iraq, is likely to be mentioned as an alternative team to Iran, and since it will advance to the World Cup finals without going through intercontinental POs, there will inevitably be another controversy, such as complaints from teams that failed intercontinental POs and controversy over equity.

Regardless of the continent, some predict that the team with the highest FIFA ranking will be qualified. The representative team is Italy. Italy, which failed to pass the European qualifying round, is currently facing the UEFA PO. Even if they belong to Group G instead of Iran, it does not violate the rules that only up to two European teams can belong to one group. Renee Muilestin, the head coach of the Iraqi national team, recently said in an interview with talk sports, "There are rumors that FIFA could push Italy as an alternative team for Iran."

However, if Italy is confirmed to advance to the alternative finals in Iran, the UEFA PO Pass A match, which Italy belongs to along with Northern Ireland, Wales and Bosnia and Herzegovina, will be twisted again. It is also controversial that tickets originally allocated to Asia are headed to other continents. If Italy passes the UEFA PO first before Iran formalizes its absence from the World Cup finals, the situation will become complicated again.

The competition may be operated under 47 countries, not 48 countries, without an alternative team at all. Only three teams belong to Group G, not four. However, the problem with this World Cup is that not only the first and second place in each group, but also the top eight teams with good performance among the third place in the 12 groups will advance to the round of 32 tournaments. This is because the third-place team in Group G, whose number of games has decreased due to Iran's absence, is inevitably at a disadvantage in performance comparison with the third-place team in other groups.

In the end, considering equity, the rules of the tournament itself should be changed in a way that determines the ranking between the third-place teams, excluding the lowest team and the previous record. If Iran's absence from the World Cup is confirmed near the opening of the World Cup, making it difficult to find an alternative team in reality, FIFA has no choice but to "inevitably" make this choice.

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*This content was translated by AI.