*This content was translated by AI.
The South Korean national baseball team, led by head coach Ryu Ji-hyun (55), will play a match against the "winner" Dominican Republic. At least, artificial intelligence (AI) concluded that Korea's probability of defeat was not 0%.
South Korea will play against the Dominican Republic in the second round (quarterfinals) of the 2026 World Baseball Classic (WBC) at Rondipo Park in Miami, Florida at 7:30 a.m. on the 14th (Korea Standard Time).
It is a showdown between the No. 1 power ranking team and the No. 7 team set by MLB.com , the official Major League website, as the team that advanced to the quarterfinals. Dominica has strong firepower enough to set up all nine starting batters with 20 home runs experience in a single Major League season. In the first round, Dominica also boasted the strongest firepower among the 20 teams in the finals with a team batting average of 0.313 and 13 homers. With an average of 10.3 points per game, he advanced to the second round with all four wins.
On the other hand, South Korea recorded 2 wins and 2 losses on the shaky mound and the ups and downs of the batting line, breaking through the number of difficult cases and entering the second round. The team's ERA was 4.50 (12th overall), with nine homers (joint first). At least, the young team's lineup was able to dramatically advance to the quarterfinals.
The powerful firepower is also a burden, but the Dominican mound has also increased. Dominica announced Christopher Sanchez (30, Philadelphia Phillies) as the starting pitcher for the against South Korea / vs. Korea early on after confirming the group's No. 1 ranking. Sanchez is a left-hander who ranked second in the National League Cy Young Award last year. The main weapon is a high-speed sinker with a maximum speed of 99 miles per hour (about 159.3 kilometers) and an average speed of 95.4 miles (about 153.5 kilometers), which are difficult to see in Korea. Change-ups are also rampant against right-handed hitters who should be weak according to the split. The swing and miss rate (Whiff%) is 45.1%.
So far, it seems that Korea's victory converges to almost zero percent. Surprisingly, however, AI's expectations were positive.
The Gemini AI provided by Google repeatedly conducted the Korea-Dominica match 100,000 times (error range of 0.3%) with Monte Carlo simulations. The exclusion of Son Joo-young (LG Twins) and the injury of Kim Hye-sung (LA Dodgers) were included as variables, and the expected lineup was the match between Korea and Australia and Dominica and Venezuela, where both teams played the best.
Considering the situation in Korea, which is dominated by KBO league players, and Dominica, which is full of major league players, last year's performance and league level were also reflected. Hawkeye-based statcasts and official website records were used for the performance and detailed indicators of major league players. In addition, the records of both teams shown in the first round of the WBC were also included as variables indicating their recent condition. The KBO league level was set from Double A to Triple A. For example, a batter with a batting average of .300 in the KBO League will change to .240 in the Major League. Considering the difference between average speed and movement, the probability of long hit and contact was also greatly reduced.
As a result, the probability of Korea's victory, predicted by Gemini AI, was 31.9%. Gemini AI saw the departure of left-hander Son Joo-young and the absence of Kim Hye-sung, who would shake the game with his fast feet in the second half of the game. Gemini AI said, "It is true that Domino's cars are overwhelming. However, if Dominican starter Sanchez shows early difficulty and the top lineup, which leads to Germai Jones, Kim Do-young and Lee Jung-hoo, shows a major league-class response, there is a chance of winning. Most of the scenarios where South Korea wins came from here," he explained.
It seems to reflect the fact that most pitchers can shake at the beginning of the first or second inning. In fact, Sanchez was also on the verge of loading the bases with no outs from the first inning against Nicaragua in the first round of the tournament despite his overwhelming pitching. In the second inning, he failed to finish the inning and went down to three runs in one ⅓ inning.
Kim Do-young is classified as a batter who can respond to Sanchez's fastball, Jones is a batter who is strong in left-handers, and Ahn Hyun-min is a batter who can hit a shot in the second half of the game at any time. Gemini AI said, "Kim Do-young and Lee Jung-hoo should target Sanchez's sinker in the top of the first inning and induce the opponent's infield to make an error. The key is to gather runners in front of Moon Bo-kyung, who ranks first in RBIs, he analyzed.
The most important thing for South Korea to watch out for was also a home run. The longer Ryu Hyun-jin plays the longest innings without a large number of runs, the higher the probability of winning. This is a scenario that was expected and planned to some extent in the face of a strong team.
In this tournament, a few unexpected events were likely to happen in that way. The match between Korea and Japan in the first round was similar, and the Czech Republic almost made it. Japan failed to score an early score against the Czech Republic, almost humiliating itself for a 0-0 tight game until the beginning of the eighth inning. Italy made history against the world's strongest United States. Of course, Italy is also dominated by major league players, but they finally won against the U.S., which is full of superstars, by scoring early points and solidifying the mound.
The players also have no intention of losing in advance. Korean national team captain Lee Jung-hoo said at an official press conference before the game, "Although there may be differences in skills, the fact that we are the same professional baseball players remains unchanged. It is not a battle between high school students and professional teams, but a battle between the best adult professional players in each country," he said with enthusiasm.
Even a cold AI says victory over Dominica is not impossible. It's time for the Korean national team to prove that 'the ball is round.'
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*This content was translated by AI.
