The exhibition game tells us, this year is the era of home runs again [RYU SUN KYU's beaded ball]

*This content was translated by AI.

The exhibition game of the 2026 KBO League ended on the 24th, with Lotte Giants, the seventh-ranked team, ranking first last year. It is notable that all the scheduled schedules were carried out without cancellation of any games. The exhibition game is more meaningful in checking the contents of the game and new players rather than winning or losing. However, in this exhibition game, there was one indicator that attracted more attention than the result. It's a home run.

As of March 23, 119 homers in exhibition games and 1.98 per game were recorded. Compared to recent years, the figure is clearly unusual. Compared to 1.14 in 2022, 1.18 in 2023 and 1.26 in 2025, it's not just an increase, it's more of a "surge."

A similar trend occurred just two years ago. The number of homers per game in the 2024 exhibition game was 1.72, the highest since 2018 (2.03). And the results were linked as they were in the regular season. The number of home runs per game during the regular season in 2024 is 2.00. It is the first time in six years that two home runs per game have opened up since 2018 (2.44), which was dubbed the era of tang ball.

Then, how likely is the increase in home runs in exhibition games to continue into the regular season. To confirm this, we summarized exhibition games and home runs per game in the regular season for 24 years from 2002 to 2025. In addition, from 2016, when the official ball was used as a single ball, the rebound coefficient of the official ball was also compared.

◆ The rebound coefficient of home runs and official balls per exhibition game and regular season games

This table clearly reveals some trends. From 2002 to 2025, the average number of homers per game in exhibition games and regular season was 1.36 and 1.76 respectively. In the season when home runs per game were high in exhibition games, home runs tend to increase even in the regular season. 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2024 are representative examples. On the contrary, in the season (2007-2008, 2012-2013, 2022-2023), when home runs in exhibition games were low, there was a decrease in long-shot production even in the regular season.

To confirm this quantitatively, a regression analysis of home runs per game in exhibition games and regular seasons for 24 years from 2002 to 2025 showed that there was a positive (+) correlation between the two indicators. The regression equation is as follows. y = 0.3888x + 1.2335 (R² = 0.2349) (x is a home run per exhibition game, y is a home run per regular season game)

However, the strength of the correlation is not large. The fact that the coefficient of determination (R²) is about 0.235 means that only about 23.5 percent of the regular season home run fluctuations are explained by exhibition game data. In other words, it corresponds to 'weak correlation'.

Still, what is meaningful is directionality. As the number of home runs per game increases in exhibition games, the trend of home runs increasing in the regular season has been steadily repeated. The figure of about 0.38 in slope shows that the increase in home runs in exhibition games has some effect on the regular season.

Therefore, considering the trend of this exhibition game, the number of home runs in the KBO League in 2026 is likely to increase.

Another thing to note is the official ball. The data since 2016 when the single-ball began to be used clearly shows that the rebound coefficient and home run tend to move in the same direction.

2016 repulsion coefficient 0.4252 → 2.06 home runs per game

0.4198 → 2.44 in 2018 (best ever)

0.4208 → 2.00 units in 2024

0.4123 → 1.65 units in 2025

The higher the rebound coefficient, the higher the home run, and the lower the rebound coefficient, the lower the trend is repeated. In general, it is known that a 0.001 increase in the repulsion coefficient increases the batting distance by about 20 cm.

Putting this together, an increase in the rebound coefficient leads to an increase in the batting distance, which leads to an increase in home runs. In fact, comparing the rebound coefficient with the home run per game in the regular season clearly shows that the two indicators tend to move in the same direction.

Last year, KBO announced the results of the first regular examination of the official ball on March 25. This year, the results are expected to be released soon as well. The figure is more than just a test result. This is because it is a variable that can affect the flow of the KBO league this season and even the league game.

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*This content was translated by AI.