If Hong Myung-bo's 'one win and one Hong Myung-bo Team' is a 'dramatic' approach to the World Cup tournament, he is actually in the 32nd round of stability.

*This content was translated by AI.

The biggest difference in the 2026 FIFA 2026 FIFA North and Central America World Cup compared to the previous tournament is the expansion of countries that advance to the World Cup finals and the resulting change in the way they advance to the tournament.

The World Cup, which was held under the system of 32 teams participating in the finals and the round of 16 tournaments from the 1998 France tournament to the 2022 Qatar tournament, has become a system of 48 teams participating and the round of 32 tournaments from this North and Central America tournaments.

The group stage of the finals will be held in 12 groups of four teams, not eight groups of four teams. It is the same as the previous tournaments that the first and second places in each group pass the group stage and advance to the tournament.

On top of that, a large number of third-place teams in each group can also reach the tournament. After the group stage is over, as many as eight more teams can advance to the round of 32 tournaments by comparing the points, differences, and multiple points of the third-place teams in 12 groups.

Football Meets Data, a soccer statistics media, released the probability that the third-place in each group could reach the round of 32 tournaments through simulation on the 3rd (Korea Standard Time).

As a result, the odds of the third-place team in the group with three points and zero difference in three group games reaching the round of 32 tournaments reached a whopping 96.3%.

This means that if one win, two losses or three draws are not recorded in the group stage and only minus the difference in gains and losses, the possibility of advancing to the round of 32 tournaments is very high.

In particular, if four points (1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss) are accumulated, the probability of advancing to the round of 32 reached 99.4% even if the difference between gains and losses is -3.

However, even if three points are accumulated, if the difference between gains and losses is negative, the probability of advancing to the round of 32 has sharply decreased.

If the difference between gains and losses is -3, the probability of advancing to the round of 32 was less than 50%, and if the difference between gains and losses is -4 and -5, the probability of advancing to the round of 32 was sharply reduced to 31.8% and 21.1%, respectively.

Just one win in three group matches can greatly increase the possibility of advancing to the round of 32, but it means that "loss management" is very important even if the remaining two games are also lost.

For the South Korean national soccer team led by head coach Hong Myung-bo, winning a victory against South Africa, which is considered the weakest in objective power, and losing as few points as possible against Mexico or the Czech Republic could be a realistic scenario to increase the possibility of advancing to the round of 32.

However, since the group stage schedule is in the order of the Czech Republic, Mexico, and South Africa, if the first and second group matches are not good, the burden on the final match, South Africa, could increase.

On the contrary, if they win against the Czech Republic or Mexico first at the beginning of the group stage, they can play South Africa in the final group stage with an advantage to pass the group stage. For Hong Myung-bo, it is the most ideal scenario to advance to the round of 32.

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*This content was translated by AI.