Expanding the pie ultimately means the baseball stadium... Jamsil vs. Sajik: The Future of the KBO [Ryu Sun-kyu's Bizball]

*This content was translated by AI.

Professional baseball is an industry where a 'fixed pie' and an 'expandable pie' coexist.

The 'fixed pie' is team rankings. Team rankings follow a zero-sum structure where 10 teams share positions from first to tenth. Regardless of the level of play, someone must finish first and someone must finish tenth. No matter how well our team performs, if the opponent performs better, we cannot reach the top; conversely, even if we perform poorly, we can avoid last place if there is a team performing worse. Thus, ranking competition is thoroughly relative.

In contrast, most areas excluding team rankings fall under the 'expandable pie.' How this area is expanded determines whether professional baseball develops beyond simple competition into a full-fledged industry. Representative examples are attendance numbers and viewership ratings.

The trend in professional baseball attendance clearly illustrates the nature of this pie. Starting in 1982 with total attendance of approximately 1.43 million and an average of 6,000 per game, the league grew rapidly, surpassing 30 thousand won in 1990, 40 thousand won in 1993, and 5 million in 1995. However, the upward trend stalled thereafter. From 2000 to 2004, attendance remained at 20 thousand won for four consecutive years, and the league suffered severe stagnation. In 2002, the Lotte Giants' Sajik Stadium was so empty that one could ride a bicycle in the stands, and game attendance records of 69 and 96 spectators symbolically represent that era.

A recovery began in the mid-2000s. After regaining 30 thousand won in 2005, the league continued its steady growth, surpassing 40 thousand won in 2007, 5 million in 2008, 6 million in 2011, 7 million in 2012, and 8 million in 2016. Although the variable of COVID-19 caused a temporary slowdown, fans returned, and in 2024, attendance surpassed 10 million for the first time in history. Following that, in 2025, it even exceeded 12 million, setting another new record. This year, on April 10, the league broke the 1st million attendance mark with the fewest games and fewest days in history, signaling a continued successful run. This trend clearly shows one fact: the pie of attendance is never fixed. It can shrink to 20 thousand won, but conversely, it can grow beyond 12 million.

Viewership follows the same trend. Like attendance, the pie can grow or shrink. When attendance increases, viewership tends to rise as well; when attendance decreases, viewership also tends to fall. This demonstrates that professional baseball consumption is a linked market moving simultaneously inside and outside the stadium. Nationwide broadcasts of all games did not begin in earnest until after 2006. Before that, games between unpopular teams were often not broadcast, and some teams even had to cover the costs themselves to request broadcasts from television networks. As broadcasts expanded, points of contact with fans increased, creating a virtuous cycle that led to increased attendance and rising viewership.

Ultimately, the 'fixed pie' and the 'expandable pie' stand on the same content—baseball—but operate differently. The former is the result of competition between teams, while the latter is a market created collectively by the entire league. Rankings are shared, but the market can be expanded.

The problem is that this 'expandable pie' is now hitting another limit. It is not due to a decrease in demand, but rather a lack of space to accommodate the demand.

Last year, the KBO League entered an era of 12 million spectators. Major stadiums have already recorded high seat occupancy rates. The average seat occupancy rate for the KBO League in 2025 reached 81.8%, with Hanwha (98.6%), Samsung (96.5%), LG (91.2%), and Lotte (90.4%) exceeding 90%, approaching a state of saturation.

These teams find themselves in a situation where they have secured sufficient fan demand but cannot accommodate it all. This is particularly true for Hanwha. All 11 home games played from the opening game through April 16 were sold out. Despite a recent slump with a nine-game home losing streak, fan enthusiasm has not waned. For the team, this is a situation to shout a 'happy scream.'

However, there is also clear regret. The current home stadium capacity is about 17,000 seats, yet the atmosphere suggests that even if the original plan of 20,000 seats had been implemented, it would have been fully filled. This is a typical example showing that the KBO League is no longer facing a 'lack of demand' but rather a 'supply limit.'

At this point, the issues of rebuilding Jamsil Dome Stadium and Sajik Baseball Stadium become important. On March 11, the Seoul Metropolitan Government formalized its plan to build a Jamsil Dome Stadium through a private-sector-led 'Jamsil Sports and MICE Complex Space Development' project. After the end of this season, Jamsil Baseball Stadium will be demolished, and a dome stadium with a capacity of approximately 30,000 seats is scheduled to be built. Sajik Baseball Stadium was selected in a competition by the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism at the end of last year, securing 29.9 billion won in national budget funds, leading to the formalization of a city-level rebuilding discussion in Busan. The capacity of the new stadium is being reviewed between 21,000 and 25,000 seats.

The problem is whether this scale is truly sufficient. The case of 'supply limits' confirmed in Daejeon must not be repeated. Jamsil and Sajik are the markets with the highest demand in the KBO League. Seoul and Busan are the country's first and second-largest cities and regions with the thickest base of professional baseball fans. Nevertheless, if the new stadium scale does not reach an appropriate level, the KBO League will be burdened with the structural constraint of 'supply limits' in its largest markets.

In fact, even regarding the 30,000-seat scale of the Jamsil Dome Stadium, there are many opinions among fans that it is insufficient. Similar concerns are raised regarding the scale of the Sajik Baseball Stadium rebuilding. Considering that both Jamsil and Sajik exceeded 90% seat occupancy last year, showing they were already approaching capacity limits, these concerns are by no means exaggerated.

Overseas cases provide an important benchmark for comparison. In Japanese professional baseball (NPB), 9 of the 12 stadiums exceed 30,000 seats, and 3 of those exceed 40,000 seats. Taiwanese professional baseball (CPBL) also possesses stadiums with a capacity of 40,000 seats. The Taipei Dome, completed in 2023, has a capacity of approximately 40,000 seats, hosted the 2024 Premier12 tournament, and contributed to Taiwan winning the championship.

Stadium size reflects not just seating capacity but also the league's status and growth potential. Large stadiums do more than accommodate more fans. They serve as a foundation for expanding the league's scope through hosting international tournaments, content expansion, and enhancing brand value.

Once the Cheongna Dome Stadium is completed in 2028, the remaining major new construction projects will essentially be limited to Jamsil and Sajik. Once the Cheongna Dome, Jamsil Dome, and Sajik Stadium rebuilding are all completed, the oldest stadium among the KBO League's 1st team venues will be the Gwangju-Kia Champions Field, which opened in 2014. This means a structure where new stadium effects are difficult to expect for the next 30 years.

Considering that one of the main factors driving current professional baseball popularity is the 'new stadium effect,' this change goes beyond simple facility replacement. Building new stadiums is a critical turning point in the business environment that influences the overall trend of the professional baseball industry.

The 'expandable pie' is not an abstract concept. If fans want to watch more but cannot enter due to a lack of seats, that market can no longer grow. Expanding the market means both creating demand and establishing the foundation to accommodate that demand.

In that sense, the appropriate scale of the Jamsil Dome Stadium and Sajik Baseball Stadium is not merely a facility issue. It is a key variable that will determine the future growth strategy of the KBO League.

The problem lies in the difference in perspective. Local governments that bear construction costs tend to minimize scale because the cost burden increases as the number of seats increases. In contrast, the baseball community believes that sufficient seat acquisition is necessary considering current popularity and future growth potential.

Ultimately, bridging this gap is the key. It is the most urgent task for not only the home teams but also the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) to unite efforts to persuade local governments and secure an appropriate scale that considers the future of the league.

<© STARNEWS. All rights reserved. No reproduction or redistribution allowed.>

*This content was translated by AI.