An Expandable Pie, Ultimately a Baseball Stadium… The Future of KBO Divided by Jamsil and Sajik [Ryu Seon-gyu's Bizball]

*This content was translated by AI.

Professional baseball is an industry where a 'fixed pie' and an 'expandable pie' coexist.

The 'fixed pie' refers to team rankings. Team rankings are a zero-sum structure where 10 teams divide positions from first to tenth. Regardless of the level of play, someone must finish first and someone must finish tenth. No matter how well your team performs, if the opponent performs better, you cannot reach the top; conversely, even if your team performs poorly, you can avoid last place if there is a team performing worse. Thus, ranking competition is thoroughly relative.

In contrast, most areas excluding team rankings fall under the 'expandable pie.' How this area is expanded determines whether professional baseball develops beyond simple competition into a full-fledged industry. Representative examples include attendance figures and viewership ratings.

The trend in professional baseball attendance well illustrates the nature of this pie. Starting in 1982 with a total attendance of approximately 1.43 million and an average of 6,000 per game, the league grew rapidly, surpassing 3 million in 1990, 4 million in 1993, and 5 million in 1995. However, the upward trend stalled thereafter. From 2000 to 2004, the league suffered severe stagnation, with attendance remaining at 2 million for four consecutive years. In 2002, the Lotte Giants' Sajik Stadium was so empty that one could ride a bicycle in the stands, with single-game attendance records of 69 and 96 spectators symbolizing that era.

A recovery began in the mid-2000s. After regaining 3 million attendees in 2005, the league continued its steady growth, surpassing 4 million in 2007, 5 million in 2008, 6 million in 2011, 7 million in 2012, and 8 million in 2016. Although the variable of the COVID-19 pandemic caused a temporary pause, fans returned, and in 2024, attendance surpassed 10 million for the first time in history. Following that, 2025 saw attendance exceed 12 million, setting yet another new record. This year, on April 10, the league broke the 1st million attendance mark with the fewest games and fewest days in history, signaling a continued successful run. This trend clearly shows that the pie of attendance is never fixed. It can shrink to 2 million, but conversely, it can grow beyond 12 million.

Viewership follows the same trend. Like attendance, the pie can expand or contract. When attendance rises, viewership also tends to rise; when attendance falls, viewership also tends to decline. This demonstrates that professional baseball consumption is a linked market moving simultaneously inside and outside the stadium. Nationwide broadcasts of all games also began in earnest after 2006. Before that, games between unpopular teams were often not broadcast, and some teams even had to cover the costs themselves to request broadcasts from television networks. As broadcasts expanded, touchpoints with fans increased, creating a virtuous cycle structure that led to further increases in both attendance and viewership.

Ultimately, the 'fixed pie' and the 'expandable pie' stand on the same content—baseball—but operate differently. The former is the result of competition among teams, while the latter is a market created collectively by the entire league. Rankings are shared, but the market can be grown.

The problem is that this 'expandable pie' is now hitting another limit. It is not due to a decrease in demand, but rather a lack of space to accommodate the demand.

Last year, the KBO League entered the era of 12 million attendees. Major stadiums have already recorded high seat occupancy rates. The average seat occupancy rate for the KBO League in 2025 reached 81.8%, with Hanwha (98.6%), Samsung (96.5%), LG (91.2%), and Lotte (90.4%) exceeding 90%, approaching a state of saturation.

These teams find themselves in a situation where they have secured sufficient fan demand but cannot accommodate it all. This is particularly evident with Hanwha. From the opening game until April 16, all 11 home games were sold out. Despite a recent slump with a nine-game home losing streak, fan enthusiasm has not waned. For the team, this is truly a situation to shout a 'happy scream.'

However, there is also clear regret. The current home stadium capacity is approximately 17,000 seats, yet the atmosphere suggests that even if the original plan of 20,000 seats had been implemented, it would have been fully filled. This is a typical case showing that the KBO League is no longer facing a 'lack of demand' but rather a 'supply limit.'

At this point, the redevelopment issues of Jamsil Dome Stadium and Sajik Baseball Stadium become important. The Seoul Metropolitan Government officially formalized the plan to build a Jamsil Dome Stadium through the 'Jamsil Sports and MICE Complex Space Construction' private investment project announced on March 11. After the end of this season, Jamsil Baseball Stadium will be demolished, and a dome stadium with a capacity of approximately 30,000 seats is scheduled to be built. Sajik Baseball Stadium was selected in the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism's public project competition at the end of last year, securing 29.9 billion won in national budget funds, prompting the Busan Metropolitan Government to begin formal discussions on redevelopment. The capacity of the new stadium is being reviewed to be between 21,000 and 25,000 seats.

The problem is whether this scale is truly sufficient. The case of 'supply limits' confirmed in Daejeon must not be repeated. Jamsil and Sajik are the markets with the highest demand in the KBO League. Seoul and Busan are the country's first and second-largest cities and regions with the thickest base of professional baseball fans. Nevertheless, if the new stadium scale does not reach an appropriate level, the KBO League will bear the structural constraint of 'supply limits' in its largest markets.

In fact, even regarding the 30,000-seat scale of the Jamsil Dome Stadium, there are many opinions among fans that it is insufficient. Similar concerns arise regarding the redevelopment scale of Sajik Baseball Stadium. Considering that both Jamsil and Sajik exceeded 90% seat occupancy last year, already showing signs of approaching capacity limits, these concerns are by no means exaggerated.

Overseas cases provide an important benchmark for comparison. In Japanese professional baseball (NPB), 9 of the 12 stadiums exceed 30,000 seats, and 3 of those exceed 40,000 seats. Taiwanese professional baseball (CPBL) also possesses stadiums with a capacity of 40,000 seats. The Taipei Dome, completed in 2023, has a capacity of approximately 40,000 seats, hosted the 2024 Premier12 tournament, and saw Taiwan win the championship.

Stadium size reflects not just seating capacity but also the league's status and growth potential. Large stadiums do more than accommodate more fans. They serve as a foundation for expanding the league's scope through hosting international tournaments, expanding content, and enhancing brand value.

Once the Cheongna Dome Stadium is completed in 2028, the remaining major new construction projects will essentially be limited to Jamsil and Sajik. Once the Cheongna Dome, Jamsil Dome, and Sajik Stadium redevelopment are all completed, the oldest among the KBO League's first-team stadiums will be the Gwangju-Kia Champions Field, which opened in 2014. This implies a structure where new stadium effects are difficult to expect for the next 30 years.

Considering that one of the main factors driving professional baseball popularity is the 'new stadium effect,' this change goes beyond simple facility replacement. Building new stadiums is a critical turning point in the business environment that influences the overall flow of the professional baseball industry.

The 'expandable pie' is not an abstract concept. If fans want to watch more but cannot enter due to a lack of seats, that market can no longer grow. Growing the market means both creating demand and establishing the foundation to accommodate that demand.

In that sense, the appropriate scale of the Jamsil Dome Stadium and Sajik Baseball Stadium is not merely a facility issue. It is a key variable that will determine the future growth strategy of the KBO League.

The problem lies in the difference in perspective. Local governments that bear construction costs tend to minimize scale because the cost burden increases as the number of seats increases. In contrast, the baseball community believes that sufficient seat acquisition is necessary when considering current popularity and future growth potential.

Ultimately, bridging this gap is the key. It is the most urgent task for not only the home teams but also the Korea Baseball Committee (KBO) to unite efforts to persuade local governments and secure an appropriate scale that considers the future of the league.

<© STARNEWS. All rights reserved. No reproduction or redistribution allowed.>

*This content was translated by AI.