'Relegation probability approaching 60%': Tottenham faces 'drop to second division' crisis immediately after Son's departure

*This content was translated by AI.

The atmosphere surrounding Tottenham Hotspur in the English Premier League (EPL) is growing increasingly tense as the possibility of relegation to the Championship (second division) looms. Statistical media outlets now predict a relegation probability nearing 60%. This 'decline' comes just one season after Son Heung-min (LAFC) led the team to win the UEFA Europa League as captain.

Football statistics outlet Opta released on the 23rd (Korea time) the Championship relegation probabilities for teams currently in the EPL relegation zone. In the EPL, where 20 teams compete, the bottom three teams ranked 18th to 20th face direct relegation. With Wolverhampton Wanderers, home to Hwang Hee-chan, and Burnley already confirmed for relegation, only one relegation spot remains.

Among the teams still facing the possibility of relegation, Tottenham is predicted to have the highest probability. Opta estimates Tottenham's relegation chance at a staggering 59.06%. Tottenham sits in 18th place, within the relegation zone, with 31 points (7 wins, 10 draws, 16 losses). The gap to West Ham United, currently in 17th place with 33 points—the safety line—is just two points, meaning a single round of results could reverse their standings. However, Tottenham faces a significantly higher relegation probability (36.4%) than West Ham.

This reflects the fact that only five matches remain and the team's recent form has been extremely poor. In reality, Tottenham has not recorded a single win this season since their victory over Crystal Palace at the end of last December. Their recent record stands at six draws and nine losses, marking a 15-match winless streak. In contrast, West Ham has turned the tide with two consecutive matches without defeat (one win, one draw), explaining the significant difference in relegation probabilities between the two teams.

Opta predicts that the competition for the final relegation spot will effectively become a two-way battle between Tottenham and West Ham. Nottingham Forest, following the two teams, has a relegation probability of only 4.29%, while Leeds United stands at 0.25%.

It is not just Opta. Another statistical outlet, Football Mitz Data, also predicts Tottenham's relegation probability at 57.3%, well over 50%, while West Ham is estimated at 38.7%. Nottingham is at 3.6%, Leeds at 0.3%, and both Crystal Palace and Newcastle United are at 0.01%.

If Tottenham is actually relegated to the Championship, it would be an unprecedented disgrace since the EPL's inception in 1992 and the first time in the club's history since the 1977-1978 season, a span of 49 years. Although there is hope for a turnaround in their fortunes by facing the bottom-placed Wolverhampton Wanderers, who are confirmed for relegation this weekend, the looming four-match stretch against Aston Villa, Leeds, Chelsea, and Everton presents a daunting challenge, further intensifying the sense of crisis.

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*This content was translated by AI.