'Probability as high as 76.14%': Arsenal appears poised to reach the UCL final for the first time in 20 years

*This content was translated by AI.

Arsenal (England) successfully navigated the difficult away match against Atletico (AT) Madrid (Spain) with a draw, significantly increasing their probability of reaching the UEFA Champions League (UCL) final.

According to updated statistics from Opta, a football data provider, on the 30th (Korean time) regarding the probability of reaching the 2025-2026 UCL final for the four teams in the quarterfinals, Arsenal's chance of reaching the UCL final has risen to as high as 76.14%, creating a large gap compared to their opponent AT Madrid (23.86%).

On this day, Arsenal drew 1-1 with AT Madrid in the first leg of the quarterfinals held at the Metropolitano Stadium in Madrid, Spain, after exchanging one goal each via penalty kicks (PK). Arsenal will face AT Madrid in the second leg of the quarterfinals at their home ground, Emirates Stadium in London, England, on the 6th of next month.

Although Arsenal held a slight edge in ball possession at 51%-49%, they were significantly outshot 10-18, yet they avoided the worst-case scenario of losing the first leg away. They are now in a favorable position to play the second leg with the support of home fans. Accordingly, the statistical provider Opta also predicted Arsenal's probability of reaching the UCL final at over 76%.

If Arsenal reaches the UCL final, it will be the first time in 20 years since the 2005-2006 season. At that time, players such as Thierry Henry, Cesc Fabregas, and Robert Pires were on the team, but they failed to win the title after losing to FC Barcelona. AT Madrid is challenging for a UCL final berth for the first time in 10 years since the 2015-2016 season.

In the other quarterfinal matchup, the UCL final qualification probabilities for Paris Saint-Germain (PSG·France) and Bayern Munich (Germany) are set at 60.95% and 39.05%, respectively.

In the first leg of the quarterfinals held the previous day, PSG secured a 5-4 victory in a high-scoring match with a total of nine goals. The two teams will play the second leg of the quarterfinals at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, on the 7th of next month. Although Bayern Munich has the home advantage, they face the burden of needing to win the second leg. In contrast, thanks to their first-leg victory, PSG can reach the final with just a draw in the second leg away.

PSG, the "defending champion," is approaching the UCL final for the second consecutive season following last season. The last team to reach the UCL final for two consecutive seasons was Liverpool, which played in the finals of the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 seasons. Bayern Munich is challenging for a UCL final berth for the first time in six seasons since the 2019-2020 season.

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*This content was translated by AI.