"This World Cup win belongs to the Netherlands!" Economist surpasses fortune-telling octopus in prediction... Will he hit four consecutive winners?

*This content was translated by AI.

An economist who correctly predicted the World Cup winners from 2014 onward has selected the Netherlands as the champion of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America.

On the 27th (Korean time), the UK's BBC reported that "German-born economist Joachim Clement predicted the Netherlands' World Cup victory using his own statistical model."

The media stated, "In the 2010 South Africa World Cup, 'Paul the Octopus,' who correctly predicted all match results, became a global sensation. Clement's prediction model surpasses Paul. He accurately predicted Germany's victory in 2014, France's in 2018, and Argentina's in 2022. If the Netherlands lifts the trophy this July, he will achieve four consecutive correct predictions."

Clement, who has lived in the UK for 10 years, describes himself as a "pessimist." The media reported, "He did not create this model to make money or to comfort football fans. He initially started this research to criticize the arrogance of economists attempting to predict areas they know nothing about."

Clement said, "This case shows that when luck aligns multiple times, people mistake me for an expert."

After correctly predicting Germany's victory in the 2014 Brazil tournament, he attempted to prove that his model was merely a fluke through his 2018 Russia tournament predictions. However, as he continued to correctly identify the winners, the public began to blindly trust his model.

Clement explained that structural factors such as population, national wealth, climate, and FIFA rankings influence performance. However, he urged the public not to blindly trust his predictions. This is because "luck," which is impossible to predict—such as players' form on the day, referee decisions, and unfortunate bounces off the goalposts—accounts for the remaining 50%.

However, as his accuracy rate increased, expectations from those around him also grew. Clement joked, "Fellow economists are seriously asking how the anterior cruciate ligament injury of Netherlands midfielder Xavi Simons will affect my model. I have several colleagues who have bet money on the Netherlands based on my report. If the Netherlands is eliminated early, I will likely have to start working from home the next day."

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*This content was translated by AI.