'South Korea Expected to Reach World Cup Round of 16': German Economist Who Correctly Predicted Three Consecutive Champions Forecasts Japan to Reach Quarterfinals; Netherlands to Win

*This content was translated by AI.

Joachim Clement, a German economist who gained attention for accurately predicting the World Cup champion for three consecutive tournaments from the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, has also released his forecast for the 2026 World Cup in North America. Clement predicts that the South Korean national team, led by coach Hong Myung-bo, will advance to the Round of 16.

According to the BBC, the UK's public broadcaster, on the 27th (Korean time), Clement made headlines by correctly predicting Germany's victory in the 2014 Brazil World Cup, France's triumph in the 2018 Russia World Cup, and Argentina's win in the 2022 Qatar World Cup. Introducing himself as a "pessimist," Clement originally stated he would "show the world the arrogance of economists who think they can predict results without knowing anything," yet he coincidentally predicted the champions of all three tournaments correctly.

Furthermore, Clement did not omit his predictions for this year's North American World Cup. Beyond forecasting the champion, he used his own model to predict the entire group stage standings and the tournament bracket. Clement analyzed that South Korea has the highest probability of advancing to the Round of 32 among teams in Group A. In data released last April, he stated, "South Korea has a 72% chance of advancing to the Round of 32 by finishing first or second in the group." He added, "Overall, Mexico, Czechia, and South Africa also possess similar strength in Group A. However, in the end, Czechia is expected to take the lead in the race for second place, while Mexico will secure third." The probabilities for advancing to the Round of 32 in Group A were: South Korea (72%), followed by Czechia (52%), Mexico (44%), and South Africa (33%).

Clement predicts that South Korea's opponent in the World Cup Round of 32 will be Scotland, which belongs to Group C. In Group C, Scotland ranked third in the probability of advancing to the Round of 32 (38%), behind Brazil (99%) and Morocco (59%). Clement stated, "I apologize to Scottish readers, but even if South Korea is not as strong as before, it is strong enough to defeat Scotland," forecasting that South Korea will beat Scotland and advance to the Round of 16. However, he predicted that South Korea's journey would end in the Round of 16 against England.

Clement predicts that Japan will reach the quarterfinals of the World Cup. Japan's probability of advancing from the group stage was 58%, the second highest in Group F after the Netherlands (73%). He further projected that after Japan causes the biggest upset in World Cup history by defeating Brazil in the Round of 32, they will also beat Senegal in the Round of 16 to reach the quarterfinals. He highlighted, "Japan is definitely on an upward trend. They defeated Germany in the World Cup four years ago, and last October in a friendly match, they crushed Brazil 3-2. Recently, they have consecutively beaten Scotland and England." However, he predicted that Japan would not win again in a rematch against England and would be eliminated in the quarterfinals.

Clement's predicted semifinal matchups for this tournament were the Netherlands versus Spain, and England versus Portugal, with the final expected to feature the Netherlands against Portugal. The predicted champion for this North American World Cup by Clement, who has correctly identified the World Cup champion for three consecutive tournaments, was the Netherlands, a nation that has never previously won the World Cup.

Through the BBC, Clement stated, "All matches, especially those between strong teams of similar caliber, depend on luck such as form, referee decisions, and goalpost variables, which are entirely unpredictable. Some of my colleagues have bet on the Netherlands winning based on my predictions. If the Netherlands is eliminated during the tournament, I might have to work from home the next day." He added, "Various crises, wars, and incidents have occurred this year. I only hope that readers, seeing my predictions, can find some comfort from all the bad things for a moment."

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*This content was translated by AI.