Will Hong Myung-bo's team follow 'heavenly luck'? Even if they reach the Round of 32, a historically difficult draw is possible

*This content was translated by AI.

The South Korean national football team secured a victory against Czech Republic in the first match of the 2026 FIFA North American World Cup Group A stage, significantly boosting their chances of advancing to the Round of 32. Sports statistics outlet Opta (OPTA) even revised South Korea's probability of reaching the Round of 32 upward to as high as 92.93%. Interest is already growing regarding who South Korea's Round of 32 opponent might be, with weight placed on the possibility of a relatively manageable draw in the Round of 32, following the group stage.

The national team led by head coach Hong Myung-bo secured a 2-1 comeback victory against Czech Republic in the first match of Group A at the Guadalajara Stadium in Zapopan, Mexico, on the 12th (Korea time). With this win, South Korea started Group A in second place, following Mexico, which had previously defeated South Africa 2-0. In this tournament, not only the top two teams from each group but also the top eight teams among the third-place finishers from the 12th groups will advance to the Round of 32 tournament. The prevailing view is that securing just three points in the group stage will greatly increase the likelihood of reaching the Round of 32, and South Korea has already boosted its Round of 32 prospects by earning three points in a single match.

Accordingly, sports statistics outlet Opta revised South Korea's probability of reaching the Round of 32, which was 70.62% before the tournament, to over 92% immediately after the victory against Czech Republic. This essentially means that the possibility of reaching the Round of 32 has become very strong. In Group A, South Korea ranks second only to Mexico (98.55%). However, the gap in the probability of finishing first in the group was significant, with Mexico at 63.47% and South Korea at 29.6%.

Meanwhile, another sports statistics outlet, Football Mitz Data (FMD), used simulations to predict South Korea's potential Round of 32 opponent in advance. In the case of Group A, where South Korea is placed on the tournament bracket, the group winner will face one of the third-place teams from Groups C, E, F, H, or I; the group runner-up will face the second-place team from Group B; and the third-place team will face one of the group winners from Groups E or G.

According to FMD's simulation results, the team most likely to be South Korea's Round of 32 opponent is Canada (15.2%), followed by Switzerland (14.4%) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (12.2%), and then Qatar and Belgium (both 7.3%). Coincidentally, Canada, Switzerland, Bosnia, and Qatar are all teams belonging to Group B. Ultimately, the media's simulation results indicate that if South Korea finishes second in Group A, there is a high probability they will face a second-place team from Group B, such as Canada, Switzerland, or Bosnia, in the Round of 32.

In particular, the fact that Canada has the highest probability may be a welcome prediction for Hong Myung-bo's team. While Canada also has a clear advantage as a host nation, its objective strength is considered inferior compared to Mexico and the United States, as it failed to win its first World Cup match. Moreover, as of June, South Korea ranks 25th in the FIFA rankings, while Canada ranks 30th, meaning South Korea is actually higher. Facing a team with a lower FIFA ranking than South Korea on the tournament stage is by no means an easy task.

Switzerland, predicted with the second-highest probability, is certainly a challenging opponent, but its FIFA ranking of 19th is not far from South Korea's and is actually lower than Japan's (18th). Furthermore, given that Bosnia's FIFA ranking is only 64th, for Hong Myung-bo's team, advancing through Group A as the runner-up and facing a second-place team from Group B could be a scenario where advancing to the next round is certainly worth anticipating. Hong Myung-bo's team will play the second group stage match against Mexico at the Guadalajara Stadium in Mexico on the 19th at 10 a.m.

<© STARNEWS. All rights reserved. No reproduction or redistribution allowed.>

*This content was translated by AI.