"Best 11 plan is complete," Hong Myung-bo exudes confidence as OPTA predicts South Korea's starting lineup for the Mexico match

*This content was translated by AI.

The day of the decisive match is just one day away. The South Korean national football team will face host nation Mexico in the second Group A match of the 2026 FIFA North American World Cup. From the outset, the prevailing view was that this match would be the major turning point for advancing to the round of 32. It is a contest where both teams must bring their full strength.

The South Korean national team, led by coach Hong Myung-bo, will face Mexico in the second Group A match of the tournament at Guadalajara Stadium in Zapopan, Mexico, at 10 a.m. (Korean time) on the 19th. In the first match, South Korea defeated Czechia 2-1, while Mexico defeated South Africa 2-0. A victory in this match could secure not only advancement to the round of 32 but also an early confirmation of first place in the group, depending on the result of the Czechia-South Africa match.

With momentum significantly boosted by the first-match victory, confidence is high. In an official press conference held one day before the Mexico match, South Korean national team coach Hong Myung-bo stated, "The plan for the best 11 is complete. All players are in good condition," adding, "The players have strong confidence, and I hope they show it well on the field." Since this is the first match played a week after the Czechia match, there is little concern about the players' physical condition. Rather than making bold changes, it is more important to maintain the current momentum as much as possible.

The fact that OPTA, a professional football statistics company, predicted the same starting lineup for South Korea's match against Mexico as in the previous Czechia match can be interpreted in a similar context. OPTA forecasted that South Korea would deploy a 3-4-2-1 formation with Son Heung-min (LAFC) leading the attack, while Lee Sung-ryong (Mainz 05) and Lee Kang-in (Paris Saint-Germain) would occupy both flanks. Notably, the prediction places more weight on Son Heung-min starting instead of Oh Hyeon-gyu (Besiktas), who scored the winning goal in the Czechia match.

OPTA further predicted that Lee Tae-seok (Austria Vienna), Baek Seung-ho (Birmingham City), Hwang In-beom (Feyenoord), and Seol Young-woo (Crvena Zvezda) would form the midfield, while Lee Ki-hyuk (Gangwon FC), Kim Min-jae (Bayern Munich), and Lee Han-beom (Midtjylland) would construct the defensive line. The goalkeeper is also expected to be Kim Seung-gyu (FC Tokyo), with no changes from the starting lineup in the Czechia match. This reflects a focus on maintaining stability in the group stage rather than rotation.

OPTA noted, "Son Heung-min recorded six shots in the Czechia match but failed to score before being substituted for Oh Hyeon-gyu," while adding, "Mexico's coach Javier Aguirre must be well aware that he needs to be wary of Son Heung-min, who has scored two goals in the last three matches against Mexico. Son also scored against Mexico at the 2018 Russia World Cup."

OPTA also highlighted, "Through the Czechia match, Hwang In-beom became the third South Korean player in history, after Choi Soon-ho and Hong Myung-bo, to record one goal and one assist in a World Cup. Lee Kang-in also delivered an impressive performance. It is the first time since Germany's Pierre Littbarski in 1982 that a player has successfully completed five or more dribbles in a World Cup, achieved a 100% pass success rate, and recorded an assist."

Unlike South Korea, OPTA predicted that Mexico would make slight changes to its lineup compared to the South Africa match. Raul Jimenez will lead the attack up front, while Julian Quiñones (Al-Qadsiah) and Roberto Alvarado (Chivas) will occupy both flanks, maintaining the same formation. However, instead of Álvaro Pidalgo (Real Betis) as the second-line attacking midfielder, the 2008-born prodigy Gilberto Mora (Tijuana) is expected to get the starting opportunity. Behind them, Erick Lira (Cruz Azul) will provide support.

Jesus Gallardo (Toluca), Johan Vasquez (Genoa), Edson Alvarez (Fenerbahce), and Israel Reyes (America) are expected to form the defensive line, while Raul Rangel (Chivas) will guard the goal. The media predicted that Alvarez would fill the disciplinary gap left by Cesar Montes (Lokomotiv Moscow), who was sent off in the previous South Africa match.

In the simulation-based prediction of the South Korea-Mexico match result, South Korea was at a disadvantage. OPTA predicted Mexico's win probability at 49.1%, a draw at 26.6%, and South Korea's win probability at 24.3%. This result came after 25,000 supercomputer simulations. In the previous South Korea-Czechia match, OPTA had observed South Korea's win probability at 42.9%, higher than the draw (26%) or Czechia's win (31.1%), and South Korea indeed won 2-1.

The FIFA ranking released on the 11th showed South Korea at 25th and Mexico at 14th. The live FIFA ranking, which reflects the results of the first group stage matches, shows South Korea at 22nd and Mexico at 13th, narrowing the gap. The all-time head-to-head record between the South Korean and Mexican national teams stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses for South Korea, putting them at a disadvantage. Since their last victory in a friendly match in Los Angeles, USA, in 2006, South Korea has recorded one draw and three losses in their last four matches. The most recent encounter was a friendly match held in the USA last September, which ended in a 2-2 draw. Son Heung-min and Oh Hyeon-gyu had scored goals in that match.

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*This content was translated by AI.