Will the Korean team's chances of victory increase if Castrof joins the Diaspora World Cup? [★World Cup Biz Lee Jong-seong ③]

*This content was translated by AI.

The total prize money for the 2026 FIFA North American World Cup is 968 billion won, a 50% increase from the 2022 Qatar tournament. The champion will receive 73.9 billion won from FIFA. All 48 teams that qualify for the finals will receive a base prize of 15.5 billion won.

If South Korea achieves a draw or better in its final group stage match against South Africa on the 25th (Korean time) and advances to the round of 32, it will secure 19.2 billion won. From an economic perspective, the World Cup has now evolved into a stage for national teams to compete for prize money.

To win a larger share of the prize money, teams must perform well. While performance encompasses many aspects, the part receiving particular attention in the North American World Cup is the racial diversity of players on each national team.

This World Cup is being called the "Diaspora World Cup." According to the British weekly economic magazine "The Economist" on the 10th, a staggering 24% of the players from the 48th teams participating in the finals were born abroad. This figure is the highest ever, an increase of 13 percentage points compared to the 9th% recorded at the 1994 U.S. World Cup.

In addition, the squads of national teams include a large number of players from immigrant generations. Including these players, about 30% of the World Cup participants can be considered multicultural players.

In the case of Curaçao, players born abroad account for a staggering 96%. Cape Verde, which has recently drawn with Spain and Uruguay and emerged as a team of the moment, has a 65% rate of players born abroad.

Furthermore, Morocco, which reached the semifinals in the last Qatar World Cup, has 19 of its 26 players for the North American World Cup squad born abroad. Many of these players were born in France and Spain, which once divided and ruled Morocco. This is why Moroccan football, which has shown strong performance by drawing with Brazil in this tournament, is being evaluated as a "product of the diaspora."

France, which has reached the finals in four of the last seven World Cups and won twice, is a European country with a particularly high number of players of African descent. Among the French national team players participating in the North American World Cup, 21 have African or Caribbean coastal heritage.

France is also called a "factory" for national team players from various countries in the North American World Cup. This is because 76 players of diverse backgrounds born in France are playing as representatives for countries such as Algeria and Senegal.

Interestingly, the racial diversity of national teams has a significant impact on performance. According to a paper published in 2022 by the School of Public Policy at George Washington University in the United States, the more players born abroad there are in a World Cup national team, the higher the probability of winning in the finals.

This paper, which analyzed data from the 1970 to 2018 World Cups, evaluated that "for every additional player born abroad on the national team, the team can play 0.15 more matches in the World Cup."

Analysis from a paper published in an economic journal in 2023 is similar. The conclusion of this paper is that as the racial diversity of World Cup national teams increases, goals scored increase and goals conceded decrease.

Teams with a rich pool of players born abroad have an advantage in the World Cup. Selecting national team players only from within the country is disadvantageous in terms of player acquisition. Moreover, for African teams like Morocco, players born abroad are important because they can utilize players who grew up in Europe, where the environment for becoming a footballer is favorable.

Football requires various abilities from players depending on their position. In this regard, European teams such as France, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Germany, where multicultural players are actively participating, can enhance their competitiveness in team composition.

On the other hand, both South Korea and Japan have a very large number of players based in Europe. In South Korea, 15 of the 26Myeong Ui (CEO)team squad are active in Europe. In contrast, Japan's squad consists of 23 players based in Europe. The steadily increasing proportion of European-based players in the national teams of South Korea and Japan since the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup has played a major role in improving the strength of both teams.

However, South Korea and Japan each have only one multicultural player in their North American World Cup squads. South Korea has Yens Castrof (23, Mönchengladbach), born to a Korean mother and a German father, while Japan has goalkeeper Suzuki Jayson (24, Parma), who has a father of Ghanaian descent.

Considering that the North American World Cup is a Diaspora World Cup, the proportion of multicultural players on these two teams is low. A contrasting point is that while Japan's Suzuki Jayson continues to be selected as a goalkeeper, Castrof of South Korea has yet to make his World Cup debut.

Castrof has a chance to play in the final group stage match against South Africa. One of the reasons Castrof has not yet played is his defensive instability. Castrof, who has a strong attacking tendency, often leaves space behind in defense for his club team.

However, in the match against South Africa, South Korea is likely to play an attacking style of football. In this regard, Castrof, who is strong in one-on-one duels and has good attacking link-up play, could become a new card for Hong Myung-bo's team, who showed a frustrating performance in the Mexico match.

In past World Cup matches, players born abroad have played a role in increasing the winning probability of national teams. For this statistic to apply to the match against South Africa, Castrof must be on the field, not on the bench.

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*This content was translated by AI.