South Korea's elimination is not certain; full summary of 32-team scenario... 'Probability is relatively high.' Only three teams need to fall behind.

*This content was translated by AI.

South Korea's dream of reaching the 32nd-team round is not yet over. Hope remains. However, South Korea's fate now depends on the results of other groups.

The South Korean national football team, led by coach Hong Myung-bo, lost 0-1 to South Africa in the final third-round group stage match of the 2026 FIFA CONCACAF World Cup A-group, held on the 25th (Korea time) at Monterrey Stadium in Guadalupe, Mexico.

In this tournament, South Korea was drawn into Group A alongside host nation Mexico, Czechia, and South Africa. They secured a 2-1 comeback victory against Czechia in the first round but lost 0-1 to Mexico in the second round. Even a draw against South Africa would have been enough to finish second in Group A and advance to the 32nd-team round. However, suffering a shocking 0-1 defeat to South Africa, ranked 60th in the FIFA rankings, caused them to miss the chance to qualify on their own.

In Group A, Mexico secured first place with three wins (9 points) and advanced to the 32nd-team round. South Africa recorded a dramatic one win, one draw, and one loss (4 points) to finish second and reach the tournament stage. South Korea finished third in the group with one win and two losses (3 points), while Czechia ended the tournament in fourth place, the lowest in the group, with one draw and two losses (1 point).

Starting from this tournament, the number of participating countries in the World Cup has increased from 32 to 48. Accordingly, the top two teams from each of the 12th groups, along with the eight best-performing third-place teams among the 12 third-place teams, will join the 32nd-team round.

This means South Korea still has a chance. However, they must wait for the results of other groups. As of the 25th, South Korea has recorded one win and two losses (3 points), with two goals scored and three conceded, and a goal difference of -1. Among the 12 third-place teams, South Korea currently holds fourth place. At this point, South Korea cannot surpass Bosnia and Herzegovina, the third-place team in Group B (one win, one draw, one loss, 4 points).

However, South Korea is unconditionally ahead of Scotland, the third-place team in Group C, which has completed its group stage schedule (one win, two losses, 3 points, goal difference -3). Although the points are the same, South Korea leads in goal difference. Ultimately, South Korea can keep its chances of reaching the 32nd-team round if it surpasses just three more teams among the third-place candidates.

While there are various variables and scenarios, Group E, where the final matches are held on the 26th, is the most favorable for South Korea. Germany leads the group with two wins, Ivory Coast has one win and one loss, while Ecuador and Curaçao both have one draw and one loss. In the final round, Germany will face Ecuador, and Ivory Coast will face Curaçao. Judging by team strength, it is highly likely that both Germany and Ivory Coast will win simultaneously.

In this case, both Ecuador and Curaçao are unlikely to add a win and may remain below South Korea. If a third-place team in Group E finishes below South Korea, South Korea's chances of reaching the 32nd-team round will increase significantly.

South Korea must also monitor the situation in Group H. Currently, Spain leads the group with one win and one draw (4 points), while Uruguay and Cape Verde both have two draws (2 points each), and Saudi Arabia has one draw and one loss (1 point). In the final round, Spain will face Uruguay, and Cape Verde will face Saudi Arabia.

The most favorable scenario for South Korea is for Spain to defeat Uruguay and for Saudi Arabia to beat Cape Verde. In this case, both Uruguay and Cape Verde would remain at 2 points and finish below South Korea. Cape Verde is one of the biggest surprises of this tournament, but based on FIFA rankings, Saudi Arabia also has a fair chance. Saudi Arabia is ranked 61st, and Cape Verde is 67th. A victory for Saudi Arabia would be a significant help to South Korea.

A situation has arisen where South Korea must also hope for a strong performance by 'arch-rival' Japan. Japan has recorded one win and one draw (4 points) in Group F alongside the Netherlands. Both teams are in first and second place in the group. Sweden, the third-place team in Group F, has one win and one loss (3 points), with six goals scored and six conceded, resulting in a goal difference of 0. Japan will face Sweden on the 26th. If Japan defeats Sweden by a margin of two goals or more, Sweden's goal difference could fall below South Korea's. In this case, South Korea would have a chance to surpass Sweden.

Group D is also a variable. Australia and Paraguay both have one win and one loss (3 points) and will face each other in the third round. Currently, Australia has a goal difference of 0, while Paraguay has a goal difference of -2. From South Korea's perspective, it would be best for Australia to win, leaving Paraguay with 3 points and a goal difference of -2. This is because Paraguay already has a lower goal difference than South Korea. Alternatively, Paraguay must secure a decisive victory over Australia. Conversely, if the two teams draw, both will have 4 points and finish ahead of South Korea.

Group I also offers some hope. France and Norway have already secured two consecutive wins and confirmed their advancement to the 32nd-team round. Senegal and Iraq, both with two losses, will face each other in the third round. Senegal has a goal difference of -3, and Iraq has a goal difference of -6. Unless Senegal wins by a large margin, South Korea is likely to finish ahead of the third-place team in Group I. A draw or a narrow victory for Iraq would also not be unfavorable for South Korea.

Group J is a bit more complex. Austria and Algeria both have one win and one loss (3 points) and will face each other in the final round. Currently, Austria has a goal difference of 0, while Algeria has a goal difference of -2. From South Korea's perspective, it would be cleanest for Austria to defeat Algeria, leaving Algeria with 3 points and a goal difference worse than -2. Conversely, if Algeria wins by a one-goal margin, Austria would have 3 points and a goal difference of -1, in which case Algeria could finish ahead of South Korea on goal difference. Even if Algeria wins, a margin of two goals or more would be more favorable for South Korea. A draw would result in both teams having 4 points, which is not good for South Korea.

Group K also requires attention. The third-place team in Group K, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, has one draw and one loss (1 point) and will face Uzbekistan in the final round. If the Democratic Republic of the Congo fails to defeat Uzbekistan, it is likely to remain below South Korea. South Korea hopes that Uzbekistan achieves at least a draw.

In Group L, it is best for Ghana to defeat Croatia. Currently, Ghana has one win and one draw (4 points), while Croatia has one win and one loss (3 points). Croatia's goal difference is -1, the same as South Korea's. If Croatia loses to Ghana, its goal difference will drop further, potentially placing it below South Korea. Conversely, if Croatia adds at least one point, it will finish ahead of South Korea.

Group G is also important. Currently, Egypt leads Group G, while Iran and Belgium are competing in the middle of the pack. From South Korea's perspective, it is desirable for Egypt to defeat Iran in the third round and for Belgium to defeat New Zealand. In this case, Egypt and Belgium will advance to the 32nd-team round. Iran, in third place, will have two draws and one loss (2 points).

South Korea could have finished second in Group A and advanced to the 32nd-team round with just a draw against South Africa. However, the defeat completely changed the situation. Now, South Korea must wait for the results of matches in other groups. Thanks to Mexico defeating Czechia, South Korea has not been completely eliminated, but the ticket to the 32nd-team round is no longer solely in South Korea's hands.

Nevertheless, hope remains. South Korea is currently still in the 32nd-team zone in the third-place standings. It is ahead of Scotland, and if the third-place teams in the remaining three groups finish with results lower than South Korea's, there is a chance of survival. The fate of the Hong Myung-bo team now depends on the results of the final group stage matches.

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*This content was translated by AI.