Japan's help was not forthcoming, raising the likelihood of a 'worst-case scenario' for Hong Myung-bo's team

*This content was translated by AI.

The South Korean national football team, which failed to secure direct qualification to the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America, now faces a difficult situation where even advancing to the Round of 32 via third-place finish is not guaranteed. In particular, the scenario in which Japan's decisive victory over Sweden could have boosted South Korea's chances of reaching the Round of 32 has also come to nothing.

Japan, led by coach Hajime Moriyasu, drew 1-1 with Sweden in their Group F third-round match at the Dallas Stadium in the United States on the 26th (Korea time). With this draw, Japan finished second in the group with five points (one win, two draws) and secured direct qualification to the Round of 32.

Hong Myung-bo's hopes that Japan would decisively defeat Sweden have also been dashed. There was a reason. South Korea had dropped to third place in Group A following a shocking loss to South Africa the previous day. To advance to the Round of 32, a team must rank among the top eight third-placed teams out of 12 groups. Sweden, Japan's final opponent, was a strong contender in the competition for a Round of 32 spot alongside South Korea.

If Japan had defeated Sweden by a margin of two goals or more, South Korea could have gained the upper hand in the third-place race. Since South Korea would only need to surpass four of the other 11 third-placed teams to qualify, overtaking Sweden could have further increased South Korea's chances of reaching the Round of 32. Although it might have been a blow to pride, this was the reason Hong Myung-bo's team hoped for a 'decisive victory by two goals or more' by Japan against Sweden on this day.

When Maeda Daizen (Celtic FC) scored the opening goal in the 11th minute of the second half, the mood was still positive. If Japan had scored just one more goal, the scenario desired by South Korea could have become reality. However, Japan immediately conceded an equalizer to Anthony Elanga (Newcastle United). As time passed, Japan began to focus more on defense, even bringing on veteran Yuto Nagatomo (FC Tokyo), born in 1986, as a substitute.

Ultimately, the match ended in a 1-1 draw. For South Korea, the worst-case scenario of the day ultimately became reality. Japan finished second in the group with five points and became the first Asian team to directly qualify for the World Cup finals in this tournament. Sweden also finished third in the group with four points, but by comparing records with third-placed teams in other groups, they secured qualification for the Round of 32, surpassing four teams including South Korea.

Hong Myung-bo's team has fallen to fourth place among the five third-placed teams from all groups that have completed their third-round matches. Sweden, Ecuador, and Bosnia and Herzegovina all recorded four points and have already secured qualification for the Round of 32. Following them are South Korea (three points, goal difference –1) and Scotland (three points, goal difference –3). Of the 12 third-placed teams, only three qualification spots remain for the top eight. For Hong Myung-bo's team to advance to the Round of 32, the final results of third-placed teams in three out of the seven groups still awaiting their final group matches must be worse than South Korea's.

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*This content was translated by AI.