Hong Myung-bo's fate for the Round of 32 will be decided 'in effect tomorrow!' The most likely scenario: all key matches are played... but if just one result is twisted, it's over.

*This content was translated by AI.

The fate of Hong Myung-bo's team for the Round of 32 is expected to be decided in effect tomorrow (the 27th).

The South Korean national football team, led by head coach Hong Myung-bo, finished the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North, Central America, and the Caribbean in third place in Group A. Their record stands at one win and two losses (three points), with two goals scored and three conceded, resulting in a goal difference of -1. South Korea now must wait for results from other groups. In this tournament, not only the top two teams from each group but also the eight best-performing third-placed teams among the 12th groups will advance to the Round of 32. South Korea still has a chance.

However, luck was not on their side from the start. All results from other groups played on the 26th (Korean time) worked against South Korea.

First, in Group E, it would have been favorable for South Korea if both Ecuador and Curaçao failed to win. Curaçao suffered a heavy defeat against Côte d'Ivoire, but Ecuador pulled off a surprise by defeating Germany 2-1. Even though Germany had already secured qualification from the group stage, considering the gap in team strength, this was nearly a major upset. Ultimately, Ecuador secured one win, one draw, and one loss (four points), entering the Round of 32 as the third-placed team in Group E.

In Group F, the result South Korea hoped for did not materialize. From South Korea's perspective, it would have been ideal if Japan had defeated Sweden by a margin of two goals or more. However, the match between Japan and Sweden ended in a 1-1 draw. Sweden also finished with one win, one draw, and one loss (four points), concluding the group stage as the third-placed team in Group F and joining the Round of 32 as one of the top third-placed teams.

In Group D, Australia and Paraguay drew 0-0, dealing another blow to South Korea. The best scenario for South Korea was for Australia to defeat Paraguay. In that case, Paraguay would have remained at three points, and South Korea could have hoped for superiority in goal difference at the same point total. However, the match ended without any goals. Paraguay recorded one win, one draw, and one loss (four points), finishing in a higher third-place position than South Korea.

Currently, South Korea is ahead of Scotland, the third-placed team in Group C, which has already completed its group stage (three points, goal difference -3). Among the remaining third-placed teams, if only three more teams record results worse than South Korea's, advancing to the Round of 32 will be possible.

The key date is the 27th. On this day, the final group stage matches will be played: New Zealand vs. Belgium and Egypt vs. Iran in Group G; Uruguay vs. Spain and Cape Verde vs. Saudi Arabia in Group H; Senegal vs. Iraq and Norway vs. France in Group I. In effect, the outcome of these three groups will likely determine in a broad sense whether Hong Myung-bo's team advances to the Round of 32.

Of course, the final group stage matches remain on the 28th: Algeria vs. Austria in Group J; Democratic Republic of the Congo vs. Uzbekistan, Colombia vs. Portugal in Group K; Croatia vs. Ghana, Panama vs. England in Group L. However, considering team strength and the standings in each group, the scenario most likely to offer hope for South Korea will emerge from the matches in Groups G, H, and I on the 27th. If all three of these groups do not end favorably for South Korea, the possibility of the team joining the Round of 32 could become quite slim.

First, in Group G, Egypt is key. Currently, Egypt is at the top of the group with one win and one draw (four points), while Iran and Belgium are competing in the middle of the standings. From South Korea's perspective, it is sufficient if Egypt defeats Iran in the final match. In that case, Iran would remain with two draws and one loss (two points). Currently, Belgium has two draws (two points), and New Zealand has one draw and one loss (one point). Regardless of the result of the Belgium vs. New Zealand match, if Egypt defeats Iran, the third-placed team in Group G will have a worse record than South Korea.

Iran faced difficulties in preparing normally for this tournament due to military tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Various factors, including U.S. visa issues, disrupted the call-up of the squad, and it was difficult to operate the base camp stably. This is the background for their fluctuating performance. In the first match, they barely drew 2-2 with New Zealand, considered a weaker team, and in the match against Belgium, they secured a dramatic draw thanks to the goalkeeper's saves. If they concede an early goal against Egypt, there is a possibility of a rapid collapse. From South Korea's perspective, they must pin their hopes on the foot of Egypt's ace Mohamed Salah (Liverpool).

The situation in Group H is relatively simple. Spain needs to defeat Uruguay. Currently, Spain is in first place in the group with one win and one draw (four points), while Uruguay and Cape Verde are tied with two draws each (two points), and Saudi Arabia has one draw and one loss (one point). If Spain wins in the final match, Uruguay will remain at two points. Regardless of the result of the Cape Verde vs. Saudi Arabia match, the third-placed team in Group H will finish with two points or fewer, allowing South Korea to finish ahead.

Of course, both Spain and Uruguay are football powerhouses. However, in terms of overall strength, Spain is generally considered a step above. Spain is one of the strong favorites to win this tournament. They need a victory against Uruguay to secure first place in the group. They are not in a situation where they can play casually after securing qualification for the Round of 32, as Germany did. Given the clear motivation, there is reason for South Korea to have hope.

Group I also has a possibility of a scenario favorable to South Korea. France and Norway have both secured qualification for the Round of 32 with two consecutive wins. Senegal and Iraq, both with two losses, will face each other in the final match. Currently, Senegal has a goal difference of -3, and Iraq has a goal difference of -6.

From South Korea's perspective, it is sufficient if Senegal does not achieve a decisive victory. If Senegal wins by a one-goal margin, their point total will be three, but their goal difference will remain at -2, placing them below South Korea. A draw, or a narrow victory for Iraq, would also not be unfavorable for South Korea. However, if Senegal wins by a margin of two goals or more, they could surpass South Korea in both goal difference and goals scored, complicating the situation.

Ultimately, if favorable results for South Korea all occur in the matches of Groups G, H, and I on the 27th, the possibility of Hong Myung-bo's team reaching the Round of 32 will revive significantly. The scenario where Egypt defeats Iran, Spain defeats Uruguay, and Senegal does not achieve a decisive victory against Iraq is the most realistic scenario South Korea can hope for.

Of course, possibilities remain on the 28th. In Group J, it would be best for South Korea if Austria defeats Algeria. Alternatively, Algeria would need to secure a two-goal victory over Austria. Both teams currently have one win and one loss (three points) and are in second and third place in Group J, respectively. However, this match is the very last game of the group stage. Since it will be played after all results from other groups are confirmed, there is a possibility that neither team will push too hard depending on the situation. If adding just one point is enough to secure a safe spot in the Round of 32, the match could follow a flow aimed at a draw, similar to the Australia vs. Paraguay match.

In Group K, the matchup between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uzbekistan is important. Currently, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has one draw and one loss, while Uzbekistan has two losses. From South Korea's perspective, a draw between the two teams would be the best outcome. A victory for Uzbekistan would also not be unfavorable. Uzbekistan has a significantly worse goal difference, making it difficult to overturn South Korea's position. Conversely, if the Democratic Republic of the Congo defeats Uzbekistan, they would reach four points and finish ahead of South Korea.

The current FIFA ranking places the Democratic Republic of the Congo at 46th and Uzbekistan at 50th. Considering the strength gap between the two teams, any result would not be surprising.

In Group L, it would be most favorable for South Korea if Ghana defeats Croatia. Currently, Ghana has one win and one draw (four points), while Croatia has one win and one loss (three points). Since Croatia has a goal difference of -1, a loss to Ghana would drop them below South Korea. Panama could theoretically influence the third-place competition if they defeat England, but it appears realistically difficult for them to achieve a decisive victory against England.

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*This content was translated by AI.