Shocking drop in South Korea's 32-team World Cup qualification probability to '50% range'... Hong Myung-bo's team pushed to the brink

*This content was translated by AI.

The possibility of the South Korean national football team advancing to the 2026 FIFA North, Central America and Caribbean World Cup 32-team stage has dropped significantly. Although South Korea finished third in the group, its 32-team qualification probability, which was close to 90%, plummeted to the 50th% range as other third-place teams surpassed South Korea's results one after another.

Football statistics media Opta lowered South Korea's 32-team qualification probability to 54.45% on the 26th (Korea time) immediately after the Group F matches concluded. After simulating the remaining group stage matches in six other groups, the probability of South Korea dramatically advancing to the 32nd-team stage and the probability of being eliminated in the group stage have now been adjusted to similar levels.

On this day, Hong Myung-bo's team's 32-team qualification probability decreased in real time. Just the day before, Opta predicted South Korea's 32-team qualification probability at 87.6%. However, this was a result where the situations in other groups that had not yet played their final matches were positively reflected for South Korea. But when Ecuador, in Group E, pulled off an upset by defeating Germany and secured a 32-team qualification spot as the third-place team, South Korea's 32-team qualification probability dropped to 73.3%. After Sweden, the third-place team in Group F, also surpassed South Korea, the probability for South Korea fell to 67.93%, dropping into the 60th% range.

The decline continued. Even Paraguay in Group D drew with Australia and took a higher position than South Korea, causing South Korea's 32-team qualification probability to plummet to a shocking 50% range. This is the first time South Korea's 32-team qualification probability has been forecasted to fall into the 50th% range, both before and after the tournament's opening. As Opta's probabilities indicate, Hong Myung-bo's team is being pushed closer to the brink.

In the ranking among third-place teams in the group stage, South Korea is gradually falling into later positions as time passes. In this tournament, not only the first and second-place teams from each group, but also the top eight teams among the 12 third-place teams with better records advance to the 32nd-team stage. South Korea, pushed to third place in Group A, is seeking a last-minute reversal through this route. The performance ranking among third-place teams in each group is determined in the following order: group stage points, goal difference, goals scored, fair play points (yellow and red cards), and FIFA ranking. South Korea's record stands at 3 points (1 win, 2 losses), a goal difference of -1, and 2 goals scored.

The group stage has concluded for half of the groups, from Group A to Group F, totaling six groups. Among the third-place teams in these six groups, South Korea has fallen to fifth place. Sweden, Ecuador, and Bosnia and Herzegovina (all with 4 points) have already secured their 32-team qualification spots despite finishing third in their groups. Paraguay is only one goal behind Bosnia and Herzegovina in goal difference but has 4 points, making its qualification virtually certain. Following them are South Korea and Scotland (3 points, -3 goal difference).

The problem is that there are still six groups left. If third-place teams in four of these groups achieve better results than South Korea, South Korea will be eliminated and must return home. Coach Hong Myung-bo stated, "It is not over yet," and continues preparations for the 32nd-team stage, but it cannot be denied that the possibilities are gradually diminishing.

Even based on the current third-place teams in each group, South Korea's 32-team qualification probability has dropped to 10th out of 12 teams. Not only the three teams that have already secured 32-team qualification, but also Paraguay (99.85%), Belgium (92.42%), Croatia (89.18%), Algeria (74.88%), Cape Verde (64.17%), and Senegal (58.1%) have higher 32-team qualification probabilities than South Korea. Only the Democratic Republic of the Congo (41.22%) and Scotland (5.26%) have lower 32-team qualification probabilities than South Korea.

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*This content was translated by AI.