'Worst-ever figures': Hong Myung-bo's team effectively confirmed for World Cup elimination... Survival probability 'only 17.84%' [World Cup Issue Analysis]

*This content was translated by AI.

It is effectively confirmed that the team has been eliminated from the World Cup. Hong Myung-bo's squad recorded the worst-ever figures for advancing to the Round of 32 since the World Cup began.

On the 28th (Korea time), Croatia defeated Ghana 2-1 in the final third match of Group L at the 2026 FIFA North, Central America and Caribbean World Cup held at the Philadelphia Stadium in the United States.

For South Korea, this means facing another worst-case scenario. According to real-time analysis by statistical media outlet 'Opta', Hong Myung-bo's team's World Cup survival probability is only 17.84%. This is a clear drop compared to the late 87.76% recorded immediately after the loss to South Africa.

Originally, South Korea, which recorded one win and two losses (3 points), two goals scored and three conceded, and a goal difference of -1, finished third in Group A and had to wait for developments in other groups. Even when the Group A group stage ended, South Korea could advance to the Round of 32 if favorable scenarios occurred in only three of the remaining nine groups. However, among the six groups completed by the 27th, only one scenario favorable to South Korea emerged, meaning that ultimately, two of the remaining three groups (J, K, and L) had to end favorably for South Korea.

For South Korea, a scenario emerged where Ghana must defeat Croatia in Group L for the performance of the third-place team in Group L to potentially fall below South Korea's.

The flow of the match was tight. Croatia, which started with key players such as Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic, took the lead in the 31st minute of the first half with a powerful long-range shot by Petar Susic. Ghana, led by coach Carlos Queiroz, also raised its line in the second half and attempted an active counterattack. In the 28th minute of the second half, Derek Lukassen's equalizing goal was recognized after a video assistant referee (VAR) review, making it 1-1. At that point, if Ghana had scored another goal, a favorable situation for South Korea could have been maintained.

However, hope did not last long. In the 38th minute of the second half, during a corner kick situation, Modric's precise kick was finished by Blazic with a header, putting Croatia ahead again. With this goal, Croatia secured a 2-1 victory, and the number of possible scenarios for South Korea collapsed.

Croatia moved to second place in the group with six points and secured a direct ticket to the Round of 32. Ghana, despite the loss, maintained four points and joined the tournament in the upper tier of third place, moving ahead of South Korea. At the same time, England completely defeated Panama 2-0, securing first place in Group L with two wins and one draw (seven points).

Now, only two groups remain in the World Cup group stage. The possibility of scenarios favorable to Hong Myung-bo's team occurring is significantly low. A dramatic survival is only possible if both of the remaining two groups work in favor of Hong Myung-bo's team.

This is because the current situation in Group K is extremely desperate. Uzbekistan, already eliminated with two losses and in fourth place (zero points), must earn points against the third-place Democratic Republic of the Congo (one draw, one loss, one point) in the final match. For the third-place team in Group K to remain below South Korea's performance, the Congo must either draw or lose. The Democratic Republic of the Congo, which had previously competed evenly with Portugal, can confirm its own advancement to the Round of 32 with a victory in this match. Given that the Congo is motivated and far ahead of Uzbekistan in terms of motivation, it is difficult to expect an upset.

At the same time, a needle-hole scenario must also occur in Group J. Second-place Austria (one win, one loss, three points) must definitely defeat third-place Algeria (one win, one loss, three points). For South Korea (goal difference -1) to surpass Algeria (current goal difference -2) in the goal difference tiebreaker, Algeria must lose to Austria and remain at three points. Alternatively, Algeria must defeat Austria by a margin of two or more goals to drag Austria down.

Ultimately, if even one of the two scenarios in Group K and Group J fails or is not met, Hong Myung-bo's team's elimination will be immediately and definitively confirmed. The snowball effect of the crushing defeat against South Africa, which could have advanced to the tournament on its own with just a draw, has ultimately pushed South Korean football into the worst-ever elimination crisis in history.

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*This content was translated by AI.