'Hanwha 27 wins 11 losses - NC 30 wins 12 losses - Lotte 28 wins 9 losses': A winning percentage above 70% is required to make it to the 'fall playoffs'

*This content was translated by AI.

As of the 19th, the gap between fifth-place Doosan Bears and sixth-place Hanwha Eagles is eight games. With each team having 32 to 42 games remaining, this appears to be a significant margin. Nevertheless, teams including seventh-place NC Dinos and eighth-place Lotte Giants are not giving up on their dreams of reaching the fall playoffs and are fighting until the very end.

So, what kind of performance must these three teams achieve in their remaining games to have any chance of securing one of the top five spots—the final threshold for postseason qualification? While this depends on the results of higher-ranked teams, we can estimate the 'minimum record' needed by chasing teams if fifth-place Doosan maintains a +9 win differential with a .500 winning percentage going forward.

Currently, Hanwha has a -7 win differential, NC has -8, and Lotte has -9. To catch up to Doosan's +9, Hanwha would need +16 wins, NC would need +17, and Lotte would need +18.

Plugging these figures into each team's remaining games: Hanwha must achieve 27 wins and 11 losses (winning percentage 0.711) in 38 games; NC must record 30 wins and 12 losses (0.714) in 42 games; and Lotte must post 28 wins and 9 losses (0.757) in 37 games to reach a +9 or +10 win differential.

This is by no means an easy task. A winning percentage in the 70s means averaging three wins for every four games played. For example, teams would need to repeat patterns such as three consecutive wins followed by one loss.

Moreover, as the leading teams pull further ahead, the chasing teams will require even more victories. Fourth-place KIA Tigers (+10 win differential) and Doosan have been in excellent form recently, recording 7-3 and 6-1-3 (win-loss-tie) records, respectively, over their last ten games.

A key variable is the 2026 Aichi-Nagoya Summer Asian Games. Players from Joo Chuk-in (CEO) teams will be absent for about two weeks starting September 14, one week before the baseball tournament (the 21st–27). Hanwha has had infielders Noh Si-hwan and Moon Hyun-bin selected; NC has only position player Kim Ju-won called up; and Lotte has pitchers Choi Jun-yong and Kim Jin-wook, along with outfielder Yoon Dong-hee, chosen.

For these three teams, if they can narrow the gap to third or fourth place by three to four games before the Asian Games, a dramatic turnaround remains within reach. In fact, last year NC was in eighth place, trailing fifth-place KT Wiz by three games as of September 6 with 19 games remaining. However, they went on an incredible run, winning 14 of their final 19 games (including a nine-game winning streak) to finish with a .737 winning percentage and secure the last playoff spot. Let's watch with interest whether a miracle story will unfold again this year.

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*This content was translated by AI.