15 Years Since the 'Full-Strength Korea-Japan Match' Was Frozen: AI Simulation Shows "Korea 42 Wins in 100 Matches" Slight Edge "Son Heung-min's Destructive Power Unstoppable Even by Japan" [22nd Anniversary Special Planning ②]

*This content was translated by AI.View Original

The two giants of Asian football, Korea and Japan. The fierce 'Korea-Japan match' has long been a hot topic in the sports world. The last A-match between Korea and Japan featuring their absolute best squads, including overseas-based players, was the friendly match in Sapporo 15 years ago, in August 2011. Although there were subsequent clashes such as the East Asian Cup or the 2021 friendly, neither team could fully mobilize its core players. Even in major tournaments where mandatory call-up rules apply, such as the Asian Cup, a Korea-Japan match did not materialize, meaning the 'first division' showdown between the two nations has remained unrealized for 15 years.

Currently, both teams have their core players active as key resources in Europe's top leagues, and it is assessed that individual market value and skill levels have reached historic highs.

Accordingly, we constructed a virtual best-11 for the current best squads of Korea and Japan to objectively gauge their strength. Through an 'AI match simulation,' we calculated the win-loss records of the virtual matchup between the two teams and examined which side holds the upper hand.

To objectively gauge the strength of Korea and Japan, we constructed a best-11 based on player ability ratings (OVR) data from the popular football game 'EA FC 26'.

▶ Korean Best-11: Asymmetric strength centered on the ace

The AI stated, "Korea has built a clear world-class core line with Son Heung-min (OVR 85) and Kim Min-jae (OVR 82). The destructive power of the attack line, bolstered by Lee Kang-in (OVR 79) and Hwang Hee-chan (OVR 75), is at the highest level in Asia. However, the two full-back positions on both sides of the defense and Kim Min-jae's center-back partner position are rated in the high 60s to early 70s, showing characteristics of a 'high-end' squad with some disparity in ability ratings across positions."

▶ Japanese Best-11: Flawless upwardly leveled balance

The AI noted, "Japan stands out for the even distribution of ability ratings across the entire squad rather than relying on specific players. The attack line's Mitoma (OVR 82), Kubo (OVR 82), and Doan (OVR 82) all recorded high figures above 80, proving their destructive power."

It further added, "The midfielders and defenders are also mostly positioned in the mid-to-late 70s, making it a 'upwardly leveled' squad with very stable offensive and defensive balance. While it may lack an overwhelming crack like Korea's 85-plus rating, its solid organizational strength with no obvious weaknesses is its strong point."

▶ Comprehensive evaluation of Korea-Japan Best-11

The AI stated, "Based on 'EA FC 26' data, the virtual best-11 strength of both teams shows a clear difference in style. Korea has the strength to decide matches with a single burst of destructive power, led by Son Heung-min as a powerful spear and Kim Min-jae as a solid shield."

Conversely, it explained, "Japan is a squad where all starters possess even skills, allowing them to maintain consistent initiative and stability throughout the match. It remains to be seen how these differing squad characteristics will act as variables in the win-loss results of the upcoming AI match simulation."

We inputted the 'EA FC 26'-based best-11 and tactical data of both teams into an algorithm and ran a total of 100 virtual match simulations based on neutral venues to derive win-loss records and match data. As a result, Korea recorded 42 wins, 21 draws, and 37 losses, securing a slight edge in the head-to-head record.

Looking at detailed indicators, the game dynamics were distinctly different. Japan led with an average possession rate of 53.8%, ahead of Korea's 46.2%, showing a flow of controlling the overall match initiative. However, in terms of scoring power, Korea scored a total of 138 goals (an average of 1.38 goals per game), surpassing Japan's total of 129 goals (an average of 1.29 goals per game).

Ultimately, it is analyzed that while Japan increased its possession rate based on the even ability ratings of its midfielders, Korea, which possesses a clear core striker in terms of final decision-making, secured practical benefits and achieved an overall win rate of 42%.

▶ Detailed data analysis and game dynamics

-Factors favoring Korea: Difference in ace decisiveness

The AI stated, "Although Japan held the upper hand in possession with 53.8%, Korea narrowly led in decision-making power inside the box. In particular, Son Heung-min and Lee Kang-in's involvement in counterattacks and set-piece situations drove victories at critical moments. Kim Min-jae's central defensive line also blocked Japanese penetrating passes with a high probability."

-Factors favoring Japan: Midfield dominance and attack development

The AI explained, "Japan's second-line and wing-back line, consisting of Sano, Kamada, Doan, and Mitoma, relentlessly targeted Korea's full-back line on both sides. More than half of the 37th matches Japan won were followed by goals in the second half, induced by exhausting Korea's defense through high ball possession."

-Turning point

The AI stated, "Among the total 100 matches, 68 games were tight contests within a one-goal margin, showing an even balance. The clash between Korea's 'ace with a massive gap in one shot' and Japan's 'possession football based on even strength' resulted in a fierce three-way struggle."

▶ Top scorers: Son Heung-min (46 goals) vs. Mitoma (38 goals)

Regarding Son Heung-min, who scored 46 goals, the AI stated, "He possesses the highest shot accuracy (SHO 84) and fast speed (PAC 84) among both teams, demonstrating overwhelming decisiveness in counterattack situations penetrating behind the opponent's three-back line. Mid-range shots cut in from the left side to the center and curling shots inside the penalty box served as his main scoring routes."

Regarding Mitoma, who recorded 38 goals, it was reported, "He shook Korea's right full-back line with excellent dribbling and acceleration (PAC 87·DRI 86). He showed the highest scoring frequency among Japan's attack line by either finishing directly after one-on-one breakthroughs or through concise shots following cutbacks."

Coupang Play commentator Jeong Jong-bong commented on the AI simulation results, saying, "It is quite impressive that the results were derived based on individual player ability ratings. In particular, it is very credible that Japan's possession rate was shown to be superior after well analyzing the tendencies of Japanese players."

However, he expressed a differing opinion regarding Korea securing only a 'slight edge' in the simulation results. Commentator Jeong stated, "The destructive power of Korean attackers places a significant burden on the Japanese defense when facing them one-on-one. Since side defense and cooperation from the second line are essential, it will be difficult for Japan to actively participate in attacks."

He further added, "Even if Japan's possession rate is higher, it is more likely that they hold possession in the middle third rather than entering the attacking zone (final third). Instead, when we cut off the ball in our middle block, starting with forward passes from Hwang In-beom, Lee Jae-sung, and Baek Seung-ho, the destructive power of attackers combined with the involvement of side resources will complete an overwhelming attack sequence."

When asked about the outcome if both teams' absolute best 11s were to face each other, he predicted a clear advantage for Korea. Commentator Jeong firmly stated, "If we face them 10 times with current strength, I believe Korea can win 7 times. The remaining 3 times are figures considering daily variables such as players' condition."

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*This content was translated by AI.View Original