Simulating the 'Full-Strength Korea-Japan Match' After 15 Years of Cessation with AI... "Korea Leads 42 Wins in 100 Matches" Minor Advantage: "Son Heung-min's Destructive Power Unstoppable Even by Japan" [22nd Anniversary Special Planning ②]

*This content was translated by AI.

South Korea and Japan are the two great pillars of Asian football. The fierce "Korea-Japan Match" has long been a major topic in the sports world. The last A-match between South Korea and Japan, fielding their absolute best lineups including overseas-based players, was the friendly match in Sapporo 15 years ago, in August 2011. Although there have been matchups since then, such as at the EAFF E-1 Football Championship or a friendly in 2021, neither team could fully assemble their core players. Even in major tournaments where mandatory call-ups apply, such as the Asian Cup, a Korea-Japan match did not materialize, meaning the "first division" showdown between the two nations has not taken place for 15 years.

Currently, both teams have their core players active as key resources in Europe's top leagues, and it is assessed that their individual market value and skill levels have reached historic highs.

Accordingly, we constructed a virtual best-11 for the current South Korea and Japan to gauge their objective strength. Through an "AI Match Simulation," we calculated the win-loss records of the two teams' virtual matchups and examined which side holds the advantage.

To gauge the objective strength of South Korea and Japan, we constructed a best-11 based on player ability ratings (OVR) data from the popular football game "EA FC 26."

▶ South Korea's Best-11: Asymmetric Strength Centered on the Ace

AI stated, "South Korea has built a clear world-class core line with Son Heung-min (OVR 85) and Kim Min-jae (OVR 82). The destructive power of the attack line, bolstered by Lee Kang-in (OVR 79) and Hwang Hee-chan (OVR 75), is at the highest level in Asia. However, the two full-back positions on both sides of the defense and Kim Min-jae's center-back partner position are rated in the high 60s to low 70s, showing characteristics of a 'high-end' squad with some disparity in ability ratings across positions."

▶ Japan's Best-11: Flawless Elevated Balance

AI stated, "Japan stands out for the even ability ratings across its entire squad rather than relying on specific players. The attack line, featuring Mitoma (OVR 82), Kubo (OVR 82), and Doan (OVR 82), all recorded high scores above 80, proving their destructive power."

It further added, "The midfielders and defenders are also mostly positioned in the mid-to-late 70s, making it a 'balanced-up' squad with very stable offensive and defensive balance. While it may lack an overwhelming crack like South Korea's 85-plus rating, its solid organizational strength, where no clear weaknesses are visible, is its strong point."

▶ Comprehensive Evaluation of Korea-Japan Best-11

AI stated, "Based on 'EA FC 26' data, the virtual best-11 strength of both teams shows a clear difference in style. South Korea is equipped with the power to decide matches through immediate destructive force, led by Son Heung-min as a powerful spear and Kim Min-jae as a solid shield."

Conversely, it explained, "Japan is a squad where all starters possess even skills, allowing them to maintain consistent initiative and stability throughout the match. It remains to be seen how these differing squad characteristics of both teams will act as variables in the win-loss results of the upcoming AI match simulation."

We inputted the 'EA FC 26'-based best-11 and tactical data of both teams into an algorithm and ran a total of 100 virtual matchups based on a neutral venue to derive win-loss records and match data. As a result, South Korea recorded 42 wins, 21 draws, and 37 losses, securing a slight advantage in the head-to-head record.

Looking at detailed indicators, the match dynamics were distinctly different. Japan led with an average possession rate of 53.8%, ahead of South Korea's 46.2%, showing a trend of holding overall match initiative. However, in terms of scoring power, South Korea scored a total of 138 goals (an average of 1.38 goals per game), surpassing Japan's total of 129 goals (an average of 1.29 goals per game).

Ultimately, it is analyzed that while Japan increased its possession rate based on the even ability ratings of its midfielders, South Korea, possessing a clear core striker, secured tangible benefits in final decision-making, achieving an overall win rate of 42%.

▶ Detailed Data Analysis and Match Dynamics

-Factors Favoring South Korea: Difference in Ace Decision-Making Power

AI stated, "While Japan held the advantage in possession with 53.8%, South Korea narrowly led in decision-making power inside the box. In particular, Son Heung-min and Lee Kang-in's involvement in counterattacks and set-piece situations drove victories at critical moments. Kim Min-jae's central defensive line also blocked Japanese penetrating passes with a high probability."

-Factors Favoring Japan: Midfield Control and Attack Development

AI stated, "Japan's second line and wing-back line, consisting of Sano, Kamada, Doan, and Mitoma, relentlessly attacked South Korea's full-back line. More than half of the 37th matches won by Japan led to second-half goals induced by exhausting the South Korean defense through high ball possession."

-The Turning Point

AI stated, "Among the total 100 matches, 68 were tight contests within a one-goal margin, showing an even balance. The clash between South Korea's 'ace with a massive gap in one shot' and Japan's 'possession football based on even strength' resulted in a fierce three-way struggle."

▶ Top Scorers: Son Heung-min (46 Goals) vs. Mitoma (38 Goals)

Regarding Son Heung-min, who scored 46 goals, AI stated, "He possesses the highest shooting accuracy (SHO 84) and fast speed (PAC 84) among both teams, demonstrating overwhelming decision-making power in counterattacks penetrating the space behind a three-back defense. Mid-range shots cut in from the left flank and curling shots inside the penalty box served as his primary scoring routes."

Regarding Mitoma, who recorded 38 goals, it was stated, "He shook South Korea's right full-back line with excellent dribbling and acceleration (PAC 87·DRI 86). He showed the highest scoring frequency among Japan's attack line by either finishing directly after one-on-one breakthroughs or through concise shots following cutbacks."

Coupang Play commentator Jeong Jong-bong commented on the AI simulation results, saying, "It is quite impressive that the results were derived based on individual player ability ratings. In particular, it is very credible that Japan's possession rate was shown to be superior after well-analyzing the tendencies of Japanese players."

However, he expressed a differing opinion regarding South Korea securing only a 'slight advantage' in the simulation results. Commentator Jeong stated, "The destructive power of South Korean strikers is a significant burden for Japan's defense to handle one-on-one. Since side defense and cooperation from the second line are essential, it will be difficult for Japan to actively participate in attacks."

He further predicted, "Even if Japan leads in possession, it is more likely that their possession rate will be higher in the middle third (middle third) rather than in the attacking area (final third). Instead, when we intercept the ball in our middle block, starting with forward passes from Hwang In-beom, Lee Jae-sung, and Baek Seung-ho, the destructive power of strikers combined with the involvement of wide resources will complete an overwhelming attack sequence."

When asked about the outcome if both teams' absolute best-11s were to face each other, he predicted a clear advantage for South Korea. Commentator Jeong firmly stated, "If they meet 10 times with their current strength, I believe South Korea can win seven times. The remaining three matches are figures considering daily variables such as players' condition."

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*This content was translated by AI.