The 'WBC Shock' U.S. Dream Team 'Failed out 1R' and a big change 'Just before' → The number of '4-3, 5-4, 6-5 cases' that used to squeeze hearts like Korea also appeared... defeat to Italy

*This content was translated by AI.

As expected, I don't know baseball. An extraordinary event occurred in which the U.S., the "baseball subordinate country," lost to the "ambush" Italy. If this happens, there is no law that Korea should not catch the world-class powerhouse Dominican Republic or Venezuela in the quarterfinals. Now, the U.S. is watching the showdown between Italy and Mexico, simply looking at the "number of cases" of squeezing the heart every at-bat and every pitch.

The U.S. national baseball team lost 6-8 to the Italian national baseball team at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas on the 11th (Korea time) in the final 4th game of Group B of the 2026 World Baseball Classic (WBC).

The U.S., which was dragged 0-8 until the top of the sixth inning, showed a scary background at the end of the game and chased by two points, but it was not enough to turn the game around.

With this, the U.S. ended its last group game with a loss after three consecutive wins, marking a 3-1 victory. Italy, on the other hand, has won three consecutive games. Italy came first and the U.S. came second. Following that, Mexico is in third place with two wins and one loss. The fourth place was England, which was confirmed to be eliminated with a record of one win and three losses. Brazil, ranked fifth, was also eliminated with four losses without a win.

Like Korea, Group B is a chaos. Now, Group B has only one match left (Mexico's second attack) between Italy and Mexico.

The number of cases is increasing. Once Italy beats Mexico, Italy will win all four games and become No. 1 in the group. Following this, the U.S. ranks second in the group with three wins and one loss. Mexico will be eliminated. So far, it's simple.

On the other hand, if Mexico overpowers Italy, the situation becomes very complicated. This is because the United States, Italy, and Mexico are tied with 3 wins and 1 loss and bite each other.

In this case, as in Korea, the three teams should be considered for the loss rate. Depending on the situation, the number of cases in which the real U.S. is eliminated as the third place in Group B comes out.

The U.S. conceded eight points against Italy on the day, and scored three runs in a 5-3 victory over Mexico. He allowed 11 runs (0.611) in 18 innings. Italy scored 6 runs (9 innings, 0.667) against the United States, and Mexico 5 runs (8 innings, 0.625) against the United States.

After all, the U.S. should want Italy to win first.

If Mexico wins by less than four points, Mexico and Italy will go up and the United States will be eliminated. For example, if Mexico beats Italy by 4-3, Mexico's run rate will be 0.470 (8 runs in 17 innings) because Mexico is the back ball. At the same time, Italy, the first player, will also have a 0.588 run rate (10 runs in 17 innings), and both teams will beat the U.S. (0.611) to advance to the quarterfinals.

If Mexico wins by six points or less, Mexico and the United States go up and Italy are eliminated. For example, if Mexico wins 6-5, Mexico's run rate will be 0.625 (8 runs in 17 innings) and Italy's run rate will be 0.667 (12 runs in 18 innings), with the U.S. (0.611) and Mexico (0.625) advancing to the quarterfinals.

According to the 2026 WBC Regulation, if three or more teams are tied, the team with the lowest number of runs divided by the number of defensive outings in a tie-breaking match will be ranked higher. If this is the same, the team with the lowest earned run divided by the number of defensive outings will be ranked higher. However, even if the earned run is tied, the ranking is determined by the batting average ranking. If the batting average is the same, the ranking is decided by a lottery conducted by the World Baseball Classic INC (WBCI).

As a result, the best scenario for the United States is that Mexico and Italy score as many runs as possible.

On this day, the U.S. made up the starting lineup in the order of Bobby Wit Jr. (striker), Gunner Henderson (third baseman), Aaron Judge (right fielder), Kyle Schwarber (designated hitter), Will Smith (catcher), Roman Anthony (left fielder), Paul Goldschmidt (first baseman), Ernie Clement (second baseman), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (midfielder). The starting pitcher was astonished McClain.

In response, Italy made the starting lineup in the order of Jacob Marcy (center fielder), John Bertie (second baseman), Vinny Pasquantino (first baseman), Dominic Canzone (designated hitter), Jack Dezenzo (third baseman), Kyle Till (catcher), Jack Caglion (right fielder), Sam Antonacci (striker), and Dante Nori (left fielder).

McClain left the mound early in the second inning, allowing a solo shot to Till and a two-run shot to Antonich, respectively. Ryan Yarbrough, who came out to the bullpen, also gave up a two-run shot to Caglion. In the top of the sixth inning, he allowed three more runs due to pitcher errors and sacrifice fly wild pitches.

As the score gap widened to 0-8, Henderson scored a solo shot in the bottom of the sixth inning of the U.S. In the bottom of the seventh inning, Pete Crow-Amstreung burst a three-run shot and launched a fierce chase. Anthony hit a timely hit in the bottom of the eighth inning. In the ninth inning, Crow-Armstrong drew a solo arch and chased down to two runs. However, Judge struck out in the bottom of the ninth inning with two outs and a runner on first base.

Meanwhile, in Group A, Canada beat 'strong' Puerto Rico 3-2 and continued its hopes of advancing to the quarterfinals. Jordan Balazovic, who played for the Doosan Bears in the past, allowed one run with one hit and three walks in three innings, Logan Allen (former NC) allowed four hits with two strikeouts in three innings, and Brock Dyckson (former SK and Lotte) marked one strikeout and no run in three innings, respectively.

Puerto Rico has already reached the quarterfinals with three wins and one loss. Canada and Cuba, which have two wins and one loss side by side for the remaining one, will play their final group match on the 12th. If Canada wins, it will advance to the quarterfinals with a record of No. 1 in the group for the first time.

In addition, Israel beat the Netherlands 6-2 in Group D to wrap up the tournament with 2 wins and 2 losses. The Dominican Republic and Venezuela, whose opponents will be decided against South Korea, will play the top-ranked team in the group on the 12th. The winning team will face South Korea (second place in Group C) in the quarterfinals on the 14th.

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*This content was translated by AI.