"The chaos after 76 years" The 'supreme aftermath' that Iran's absence from the World Cup will bring

*This content was translated by AI.

The recent military conflict between the U.S. and Iran has created a strong aftermath in the global soccer community. This is because Iran, which won a ticket to the 2026 FIFA North and Central America World Cup finals in June, virtually declared its absence from the tournament. If Iran's withdrawal is confirmed, the World Cup is expected to fall into chaos for the first time in 76 years.

Iran's Sports and Youth Minister Ahmad Donyamali said on the 11th (local time), "We cannot participate in the World Cup under any circumstances, given that the corrupt regime (the United States) assassinated our leader (Ali Khamenei)." Mehdi Taj, president of the Iranian Football Association, also said earlier this month, "The U.S. attack has made it very difficult to optimistically predict participation in the World Cup."

Iran was in Group G with Belgium, New Zealand and Egypt at this World Cup. Coincidentally, all three group games will be played in Los Angeles and Seattle. Various speculations and expectations are rampant as FIFA has not yet made a clear stance on the possibility of Iran's absence, saying it is "closely watching all issues around the world."

The selection of alternative participating countries is at FIFA's 'independent discretion'. Meanwhile, Iraq on the same continent is being mentioned as the most likely candidate in the soccer world.

Iraq beat the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the fifth round (final playoff) of the Asian qualifiers to qualify for the intercontinental playoff. It is scheduled to face South America's Bolivia-Surinam winner for the final ticket in Mexico on the 31st.

Therefore, it is argued that Iraq can win the game and advance to the finals on its own, or even if it loses, it can be on the stage as the next Asian runner-up (final playoff victory). It is also mentioned that Iraq will succeed Iran's ticket without an intercontinental playoff at all.

There are opportunities for countries outside Iraq.

Foreign media reported on the 9th (Korea Standard Time) that "Graham Arnold, head coach of the Iraqi national soccer team, urgently asked FIFA to adjust the intercontinental playoff schedule." The reason was that it was difficult to move the team due to the war in neighboring Iran and the closure of airspace in the Middle East.

If the playoffs don't take place, Iraq will likely be Iran's replacement, and the Bolivia-Surinam winner will win a ticket to the finals.

The UAE is also not giving up hope. If Iraq wins the playoffs and makes it to the finals on its own, Iran's alternative participants will still be vacant. In that case, the ticket could be given to the UAE, the next priority for the Asian continent.

Some argue that a completely different continental country could replace Iran. According to FIFA regulations, teams that abstain or lose their qualifications can be replaced by 'other associations (nationals), but there is no provision that 'the replacement team must belong to the same continental federation as the disqualified team'.

Therefore, even if the Bolivia-Surinam winner loses in Iraq and the playoffs, he may become Iran's successor. Or, there is a prospect that European or South American teams with high FIFA rankings and help with the success of the tournament could be selected.

If FIFA pushes ahead with the tournament with 47 countries without alternative participants, confusion will inevitably occur in other countries.

In this tournament, 48 countries will be divided into 12 groups, and a total of 24 teams ranked first and second in each group and eight teams with high points and goal differences among the 12 teams ranked third will advance to the round of 32 tournaments.

If Iran is out, the three teams in Group G will play one less game each than the other teams, making even comparisons impossible. In addition, even if both Iran and the game are treated as 3-0 byes, there is a problem that equity is inconsistent with third place in other groups.

In the history of the World Cup, which began in 1930, there were a few cases in the early days when the finalists gave up the tournament. Starting with Uruguay at the 1934 World Cup in Italy, there were Austria at the 1938 World Cup in France, and the last was the 1950 World Cup in Brazil 76 years ago.

At that time, France, Scotland, and India gave up their participation due to distance traveled, leaving the stigma of a "tournament of voting rights." The year was originally a 16-nation system, but FIFA played the tournament with 13 countries without a substitute country.

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*This content was translated by AI.