'Supercomputer's Surprise Prediction': South Korea's World Cup Round of 16 Probability Reverses, Higher Than Japan's

*This content was translated by AI.

With the 2026 FIFA North American World Cup just ten days away, a supercomputer simulation has predicted that South Korea's national football team has a greater than 70% chance of advancing to the Round of 32. The probability of reaching the Round of 16 was forecast at 33.52%, drawing attention as it is higher than that of Japan, which is considered a dark horse of the tournament.

According to performance predictions for participating teams in the North American World Cup released by Opta, a football statistics specialist media outlet, on the 2nd (Korean time), the probability of South Korea, led by coach Hong Myung-bo, finishing first in Group A is 22.69%, and the probability of advancing to the Round of 32 is a remarkable 70.35%. This prediction was made after 10,000 supercomputer simulations conducted ahead of the World Cup opening.

The possibility of finishing first in Group A was second only to host nation Mexico (47.8%), followed by Czechia (18.1%) and South Africa (11.4%). In this tournament, not only the top two teams from each group but also the top eight teams among the 12 third-place finishers can advance to the Round of 32 tournament, widening the path to the knockout stage. Out of the 48th nations participating in the group stage, 32 teams, accounting for 67%, will advance to the tournament.

Among the 48th nations that qualified for the finals, 22 teams had a Round of 32 probability in the 70th% range, with South Korea taking the last spot in the '70% range Round of 32 probability' category. In Group A, the order was Mexico (87.61%), South Korea, Czechia (63.38%), and South Africa (49.29%), with South Korea again ranking second.

More attention-grabbing than the 70th% range Round of 32 probability is South Korea's probability of reaching the Round of 16. At 33.52%, it ranks 21st overall, which is 0.05 percentage points higher than Japan's Round of 16 probability (33.47%). While Japan's probability of finishing first in its group (26.78%) and its Round of 32 advancement probability (76.16%) were significantly higher than South Korea's, the result was a reversal where South Korea's Round of 16 probability was actually higher.

This is interpreted as a result that reflects not only each team's strength but also the expected knockout stage matchups. Japan, which belongs to Group F along with the Netherlands, Sweden, and Tunisia, is more likely to finish second in the group rather than first based on objective strength. In the actual Group F first-place probability predicted by Opta, Japan ranks second after the Netherlands (47.96%).

If Japan actually advances to the Round of 32 as the second-place team in Group F, it will face the first-place team from Group C in a battle for the Round of 16, according to the tournament bracket. Group C is expected to have Brazil as a strong candidate for first place, labeled a 'championship favorite.' Brazil's probability of finishing first in the group is a remarkable 60.36%. Ultimately, there is a high probability that Brazil and Japan will meet in the Round of 32 based on probability. Japan's probability of advancing to the Round of 16 must inevitably decrease.

In contrast, if Hong Myung-bo's team advances to the Round of 32 as the second-place team in its group, it will face the second-place team from Group B, which includes Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, and Switzerland. There is a chance of winning against any team. Although the probability of finishing first in the group and advancing to the Round of 32 is lower than Japan's, it is highly likely that South Korea is predicted to be in a more advantageous position at least regarding the probability of advancing to the Round of 16. This is the point interpreted as the background for the 'reversal' that occurred in the Round of 16 advancement probabilities between South Korea and Japan.

However, after passing the 'Round of 16 hurdle,' the trends between South Korea and Japan reverse again. South Korea's probability of reaching the Quarterfinals is 12.74%, the probability of reaching the Semifinals is 4.02%, and the probabilities of reaching the final and winning the championship are 1.3% and 0.36%, respectively. In contrast, Japan is predicted to have a Quarterfinal probability of 17.02%, a Semifinal probability of 7.4%, a final appearance probability of 3.28%, and a championship probability of 1.24%, receiving higher probabilities than South Korea in all rounds except the Round of 16. Japan's championship probability of 1.24% ranks 17th among all 48 nations. South Korea's championship probability of 0.36% ranks tied for 26th overall.

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*This content was translated by AI.