'South Korea Could Be Eliminated': Scenarios for 2026 World Cup 32-Team Qualification, Including Possibility of Dropping to 4th in Group

*This content was translated by AI.

South Korea remains in a favorable position, but complacency must be avoided. A careless mistake could see the team drop to last place among the four teams and head home early. This is the situation facing Hong Myung-bo's squad after losing to Mexico in the second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA North American World Cup.

Under the guidance of head coach Hong Myung-bo, South Korea lost 0-1 to Mexico in the second group stage match of the tournament, held on the 19th (Korea time) at the Guadalajara Stadium in Zapopan, Mexico. In the 5th minute of the second half, Mexico capitalized on a loose ball following a collision between goalkeeper Kim Seung-gyu (FC Tokyo) and defender Lee Gi-hyeok (Gangwon FC). Misfortune also struck as a decisive shot by Cho Gue-sung (Midtjylland) in the final minutes was saved by the opposing goalkeeper.

With this loss, South Korea remains at three points (one win, one loss), while Mexico, which has won two consecutive matches, has secured six points and has already qualified for the 32nd-team round along with the group winner. Although South Korea and Mexico could finish with the same number of points depending on the final match results, Mexico is confirmed as the group winner because the tournament rules prioritize head-to-head records in the event of a tie.

In contrast, South Korea now faces a two-point deficit in the standings from the Czech Republic and South Africa, who both drew 1-1 in their earlier matches (one draw, one loss, one point each). South Korea's final group stage match will be against South Africa on the 25th at 10 a.m. at the Monterrey Stadium in Mexico. At the same time, the final matches between Mexico and the Czech Republic will also be played simultaneously.

Unlike previous World Cups with 32 participating teams and a 16-team knockout format, this tournament features 48 teams and a 32-team knockout format. The top two teams from each group, along with the eight best-performing third-placed teams among the 12th groups, will advance to the 32nd-team round. For South Korea to qualify, it must either finish second in the group and advance directly, or achieve the best possible results and then assess its chances of advancing as a third-placed team. Finishing fourth in the group means immediate elimination.

The scenarios for South Korea to qualify for the 32nd-team round on its own are straightforward. As long as South Korea does not lose to South Africa, it will secure second place in the group and advance to the 32nd-team round. Even if South Korea draws with South Africa and the Czech Republic defeats Mexico at the same time, resulting in both South Korea and the Czech Republic finishing with four points, South Korea would still be confirmed as the group's second-placed team due to a superior head-to-head record. As of June, the FIFA rankings place South Korea at 25th and South Africa at 60th, a significant gap. Moreover, South Africa will be without two players due to red card suspensions and accumulated yellow card suspensions, making them unable to face South Korea. South Korea is in a favorable position in many respects.

The problem arises if an "upset" occurs where South Korea loses to South Africa. If South Korea loses to South Africa, it will drop to third place in the group, behind South Africa. If the Czech Republic also defeats Mexico, South Korea's ranking would plummet to fourth place in an instant. Finishing fourth means certain elimination from the group stage, bringing an end to South Korea's journey in this World Cup. Even if the Czech Republic fails to defeat Mexico, Hong Myung-bo's squad will remain in the host country for the time being, with qualification for the 32nd-team round or elimination depending on the results of the other 11 third-placed teams.

Of course, realistically, the possibility of South Korea's elimination is not high. Football statistics outlet Opta also predicted South Korea's chances of qualifying for the 32nd-team round at 89.59%, even after the loss to Mexico. Although the probability has decreased compared to immediately after the victory against the Czech Republic, it still predicts a nearly 90% chance of advancing to the 32nd-team round. This is interpreted as reflecting the clear objective strength advantage South Korea holds over South Africa, as well as the fact that South Korea would only be eliminated if it loses to South Africa and the host nation Mexico also loses to the Czech Republic.

However, South Korean football's historical weakness against African teams in World Cups cannot be ignored. In fact, South Korea drew with Nigeria at the 2010 South Africa World Cup, suffered a shocking 2-4 defeat to Algeria at the 2014 Brazil tournament, and lost 2-3 to Ghana at the 2022 Qatar tournament. It is also noteworthy that South Africa, considered the weakest team, dominated possession with 62%-38% and led in shots 17-14 in the second group stage match against the Czech Republic.

Another factor that cannot be overlooked is that while Mexico has already secured qualification for the 32nd-team round and even the group title, the Czech Republic is hoping for a "miracle." Mexico can afford to rest players in its final match to conserve energy, but the Czech Republic, which can aim for direct qualification to the 32nd-team round depending on the results of the South Korea-South Africa match if it defeats Mexico, will play with full effort. This is why the possibility of the Czech Republic defeating Mexico, which could directly determine South Korea's fate in the group stage, cannot be dismissed as slim.

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*This content was translated by AI.