'South Korea Could Be Eliminated': Scenarios for 2026 World Cup 32-Team Qualification, Including Possibility of Dropping to Fourth in Group

*This content was translated by AI.

South Korea remains in a favorable position, but complacency must be avoided. A careless mistake could see the team drop to last place among the four teams and head home early. This is the situation facing Hong Myung-bo's squad after losing to Mexico in the second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA North American World Cup.

Under the guidance of head coach Hong Myung-bo, South Korea lost 0-1 to Mexico in the second group stage match of the tournament, held on the 19th (Korea time) at the Guadalajara Stadium in Zapopan, Mexico. In the fifth minute of the second half, Mexico capitalized on a loose ball following a collision between goalkeeper Kim Seung-gyu (FC Tokyo) and defender Lee Gi-hyeok (Gangwon FC). Misfortune also struck as a decisive shot by Cho Gue-sung (Midtjylland) in the closing stages was saved by the opposing goalkeeper.

With this loss, South Korea remains at three points (one win, one loss), while Mexico, which has won two consecutive matches and holds six points, has already secured qualification for the 32nd-team round along with first place in the group. Although South Korea and Mexico could finish with the same number of points depending on the final match results, Mexico is confirmed as the group winner because the tournament rules prioritize head-to-head results when points are tied.

In contrast, South Korea now faces a two-point deficit in the standings from the Czech Republic and South Africa, both of whom drew 1-1 in their earlier matches (one draw, one loss, one point each). South Korea's final group stage match will be against South Africa on the 26th at 10 a.m. at the Monterrey Stadium in Mexico. At the same time, the final matches between Mexico and the Czech Republic will also be played simultaneously.

Unlike previous World Cups that featured 32 teams competing in a 16-team knockout format, this tournament involves 48 teams with a 32-team knockout stage. The top two teams from each group, along with the eight best-performing third-placed teams among the 12th groups, will advance to the 32nd-team round. For South Korea to qualify, it must either finish second in the group and advance directly, or achieve the best possible results and then assess its chances as a third-placed team. Finishing fourth in the group means immediate elimination.

The scenarios for South Korea to qualify for the 32nd-team round on its own are straightforward. As long as South Korea does not lose to South Africa, qualification through second place in the group is secured. Even if South Korea draws with South Africa and the Czech Republic defeats Mexico at the same time, resulting in both South Korea and the Czech Republic finishing with four points, South Korea would still secure second place due to superior head-to-head results. As of June, the FIFA ranking places South Korea at 25th and South Africa at 60th, a significant gap. Moreover, South Africa will be without two players due to red card suspensions and accumulated yellow card suspensions, making them unable to face South Korea. South Korea is in a favorable position in multiple respects.

The problem arises if an "upset" occurs and South Korea loses to South Africa. If South Korea loses, it will drop to third place in the group behind South Africa. If the Czech Republic also defeats Mexico, South Korea's position could plummet to fourth place in an instant. Finishing fourth means certain elimination from the group stage, effectively ending South Korea's journey in this World Cup. Even if the Czech Republic fails to defeat Mexico, Hong Myung-bo's squad will remain in the host country for the time being, with qualification or elimination depending on the results of the other 11 third-placed teams.

Of course, realistically, the possibility of South Korea's elimination is not high. Football statistics outlet Opta also predicted an 89.59% probability of South Korea qualifying for the 32nd-team round despite the loss to Mexico. Although the probability has decreased compared to immediately after the victory against the Czech Republic, it still stands at nearly 90%. This assessment reflects the clear advantage South Korea holds over South Africa based on objective strength, as well as the fact that even if South Korea loses to South Africa, elimination from the 32nd-team round would only be confirmed if the host nation Mexico also loses to the Czech Republic.

However, South Korean football's historical weakness against African teams in World Cups cannot be ignored. In the 2010 South Africa World Cup, South Korea drew with Nigeria; in the 2014 Brazil tournament, it suffered a shocking 2-4 defeat to Algeria; and in the 2022 Qatar tournament, it lost 2-3 to Ghana. It is also noteworthy that South Africa, considered the weakest team, dominated possession 62%-38% and led in shots 17-14 in the second group stage match against the Czech Republic.

Another factor that cannot be overlooked is that while Mexico has already secured qualification for the 32nd-team round and even first place in the group, the Czech Republic is hoping for a "miracle." Mexico can afford to rest players in its final match to conserve energy, but the Czech Republic, which can aim for direct qualification to the 32nd-team round if it defeats Mexico regardless of the South Korea-South Africa result, will play with full intensity. This is why the possibility of the Czech Republic defeating Mexico, which could directly determine South Korea's fate in the group stage, cannot be dismissed as negligible.

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*This content was translated by AI.