Hong Myung-bo's "Lee Kang-in Excluded from Starting Lineup" Bold Move, "Draw Secures 32nd Place" Against South Africa: "2-3 Changes" Expected

*This content was translated by AI.

The "day of decisive battle" is one day away. This is the final group stage match for the South Korean national football team to determine whether they will advance to the 2026 FIFA North, Central America and Caribbean World Cup round of 32. A favorable situation exists where simply avoiding defeat allows South Korea to advance to the round of 32 on their own. Coach Hong Myung-bo's final dilemma regarding the selection of the starting lineup is also deepening.

South Korea, led by coach Hong Myung-bo, will face South Africa in the third group stage match of the tournament at Monterrey Stadium in Monterrey, Mexico, at 10 a.m. Korea time on the 25th. South Korea, currently in second place in the group with 3 points (1 win, 1 loss), will secure advancement to the round of 32 along with the group runner-up simply by drawing against South Africa (1 point). In this tournament, the top two teams from each group and the eight best third-placed teams among the 12th groups will advance from the group stage. FIFA rankings show South Korea at 25th and South Africa at 60th.

The scenarios for South Korea's advancement to the round of 32 are straightforward: a draw or better against South Africa. Regardless of the result of the Mexico vs. Czech Republic match being played at the same time, South Korea will secure advancement to the round of 32 as the group runner-up on their own. However, even if South Korea ties with Mexico on points, they cannot rise to first place; similarly, even if they tie with Czech Republic on points, they cannot drop to third place. This is because, under tournament regulations, head-to-head results take precedence in case of a tie in points. The only scenario in which South Korea would be eliminated is if they lose to South Africa while Czech Republic defeats Mexico simultaneously.

Naturally, predictions overwhelmingly suggest that South Korea's chances of advancing to the round of 32 are very high. As of the day before the match, the 24th, football statistics media Opta projected South Korea's probability of advancing to the round of 32 at a remarkable 90.57%. Another media outlet, FootballMitsData, has predicted it at over 92%. This reflects the objective power gap between South Korea and Mexico, as well as the scenarios for South Korea's self-reliant advancement to the round of 32. Coach Hong Myung-bo even stated during the pre-match press conference, "I don't think South Korea has ever faced such a favorable set of scenarios before."

Although advancement to the round of 32 is not yet confirmed, some changes may occur in coach Hong Myung-bo's player deployment strategy, including the starting lineup. Coach Hong made changes to only one position in the starting lineups for the first and second group stage matches against Czech Republic and Mexico. The utilization of substitution cards was also similar, such as starting Son Heung-min (LAFC) as the lone striker and bringing on Oh Hyeon-gyu (Besiktas) and Hwang Hee-chan (Wolverhampton) in the second half. However, against South Africa, there could be significant changes in the scope of player deployment, from the starting lineup to substitution cards depending on the flow of the game.

The utilization of Lee Kang-in (Paris Saint-Germain) may also undergo changes. In some cases, the possibility of a "bold move" to completely exclude him from the starting lineup for the South Africa match cannot be ruled out. Lee Kang-in started and played the full 90 minutes in both the Czech Republic and Mexico matches. Among field players, he is the only one to have played full 90 minutes in both matches, excluding the three center-backs. Although the physical burden is relatively light due to the one-week interval between matches, the fact that he joined the national team latest due to his club schedule and has not even had proper rest is a point that cannot be overlooked.

Moreover, Lee Kang-in received one caution in the previous Mexico match and is now in a caution trouble situation. If he receives a second caution in the South Africa match, he will be unable to participate in the first round of the tournament even if South Korea advances to the round of 32. Conversely, if he does not receive a caution in the South Africa match, all group stage caution records will be wiped out after the group stage concludes, according to tournament regulations.

Ultimately, it is highly likely that Lee Kang-in will be excluded from the starting lineup and deployed as a substitute depending on the game flow, or if he starts, his playing time will be limited rather than playing the full 90 minutes as in the previous two matches. Coach Hong Myung-bo previously positioned Lee Dong-gyeong (Ulsan HD) or Bae Jun-ho (Stoke City) on the flanks in a friendly match where Lee Kang-in was excluded from the starting lineup. Coincidentally, both Lee Dong-gyeong and Bae Jun-ho have no appearance records in this tournament yet.

In the same vein, Baek Seung-ho (Birmingham City), who started both consecutive matches and is now in a "caution trouble" situation, and Seol Young-woo (Crvena Zvezda), the only wing-back resource to have started both matches, may be able to breathe a sigh of relief given they have clear backup options. Attention is also focused on whether there will be changes in the utilization of Son Heung-min (LAFC), who has been at the center of controversy regarding his positioning and substitution timing. Coach Hong Myung-bo has announced that "there will be changes in the starting lineup for about two or three positions."

<© STARNEWS. All rights reserved. No reproduction or redistribution allowed.>

*This content was translated by AI.