Hong Myung-bo's team's 32-team round probability begins to plummet, with Opta's forecast dropping from 87.6% to the 70th% range

*This content was translated by AI.

South Korea's probability of advancing to the 32nd-team round of the 2026 FIFA North, Central America and Caribbean World Cup under coach Hong Myung-bo has fallen to the 70th% range. Immediately after the loss to South Africa the previous day, South Korea's 32-team round probability had reached 87.6%, but it began to decline as the final matches of other groups concluded. As the final standings of each group are determined sequentially, South Korea's 32-team round probability is expected to fluctuate dramatically.

Football statistics firm Opta lowered South Korea's 32-team round probability from 87.6% the previous day to 73.3% on the 26th (Korea time), immediately after the conclusion of Group E matches in the tournament's group stage. In Group E on that day, Ecuador secured a spot in the 32nd-team round by finishing third in the group with an upset 2-1 victory over Germany. Having accumulated four points in the group stage (one win, one draw, one loss; goal difference 0), Ecuador has already secured a position within the top eight among the 12 third-place teams. The same applies to Bosnia and Herzegovina in Group B (four points; goal difference -1).

With the group stage matches in Groups A, B, C, and E—totaling four groups—now all concluded, South Korea has dropped to third place among the four third-place teams. South Korea's final Group A record stands at three points (one win, two losses) with a goal difference of -1 (two goals scored). South Korea has only surpassed Scotland, the third-place team in Group C (three points; goal difference -3), but remains behind Ecuador and Bosnia.

As the group stage matches in the remaining eight groups conclude one after another, South Korea's ranking in the competition for third place is expected to change. In this World Cup, the top two teams from each group advance directly to the 32nd-team round, and the eight best-performing third-place teams among the 12th also advance to the 32nd-team round tournament. For South Korea to reach the 32nd-team round, three of the remaining eight third-place teams must have worse records than South Korea.

Despite the loss to South Africa the previous day, South Korea's 32-team round probability was predicted to remain high at 87.6% because the situations in other groups that had not yet played their final matches were heavily factored in. Now, as the group stage concludes, South Korea's 32-team round probability must inevitably change significantly. Just as South Korea's 32-team round probability plummeted alongside Ecuador's advancement, the downward trend will only intensify whenever a third-place team from another group with a better record than South Korea emerges.

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*This content was translated by AI.