*This content was translated by AI.

Hong Myung-bo's team, which squandered its chance to advance to the round of 32 on its own, has fallen into a pitiful state of being completely ignored even by the supercomputer analysis of a world-class statistical media outlet. After the probability of advancing to the knockout stage, which had approached 90%, was cut in half, the probability of winning the championship plummeted to a decimal figure, accepting an evaluation as the weakest team in the World Cup.
The South Korean national football team, led by head coach Hong Myung-bo, finished the group stage in third place in Group A of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North, Central America and the Caribbean with one win and two losses (3 points).
Initially, it was widely assessed that the group draw was relatively easy, as South Korea was placed in a group with host nation Mexico, as well as Czechia and South Africa. However, after winning the first match against Czechia (2-1), the team was repeatedly defeated by Mexico (0-1) and South Africa (0-1), leaving it unable to secure a spot in the round of 32 on its own and anxiously waiting for results from other groups.
This tournament marks the first time in history that 48 teams have participated, with the top two teams in each group advancing directly to the round of 32, and the top eight teams among the 12th teams that finished third in their groups taking the last train to the knockout stage. The ranking is calculated in the following order: points, goal difference, goals scored, fair play points, and FIFA ranking.

With the final group stage matches remaining in six groups, South Korea is currently clinging to as high as fifth place among the third-place teams. For South Korea to survive, at least three of the six possible scenarios that must be met must come true for a spot in the round of 32 to remain possible.
The problem is that the probability is shrinking in a direction increasingly unfavorable to South Korea. Unexpected upsets occurred in the final matches of Groups D, E, and F, causing three of the scenarios South Korea had hoped for to vanish in vain. Paraguay in Group D drew with Australia, securing a higher position than South Korea; Ecuador in Group E achieved a dramatic comeback victory (1-2) against Germany; and Sweden in Group F also drew with Japan (1-1), securing four points and confirming their advancement to the round of 32, surpassing South Korea.
As a result, the probability of South Korea advancing to the round of 32, as calculated in real time by the supercomputer of the renowned statistical media outlet 'Opta', continued to plummet. The figure, which had approached 90% in the early stages of the tournament, has now dropped to 54.45%, pushing the team to the brink of a cliff.
Even if South Korea barely makes it to the knockout stage by breaking through the scenarios, a rocky road is ahead. If South Korea manages to advance to the round of 32 in a dramatic fashion, the first opponent it is likely to face is the formidable Egypt, anchored by Mohamed Salah.

With the situation as it is, the supercomputer's prediction for South Korea's World Cup championship probability has also fallen to a tragic level. While the probability for teams that have already been eliminated from the group stage is recorded at 0%, South Korea's championship probability, which is barely holding on by a thread, has been evaluated at just 0.09%. This is effectively the lowest among the surviving nations participating in the tournament. Below South Korea are only four countries: South Africa (0.08%), which humiliated South Korea in the final match, Cape Verde (0.06%), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (0.02%), and Saudi Arabia (0.01%).
On the other hand, the supercomputer has identified France as the top favorite to win this tournament, assigning it a probability of 15.61%. Argentina (14.40%) and Spain (13.15%) followed, exceeding the 10th% mark and being named the three main championship contenders. England (8.94%), Portugal, and Brazil followed, each with probabilities around 6%.
Hong Myung-bo's team, which kicked away its own opportunity and suffered humiliation, is currently continuing recovery training at Chivas Verde Valle, the base camp in Guadalajara, while holding onto a sliver of hope.

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*This content was translated by AI.

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