"It's not over yet; they can still receive applause," Coach Hong Myung-bo firmly asserts, but will it all come to a futile end? 'Survival probability' plummets to a mere 31% [World Cup Issue Analysis]

*This content was translated by AI.

While the command staff and players on the field are not letting go of the faint thread of hope and are devoting themselves to training for the tournament, the situation in other groups is completely shaking the fate of Hong Myung-bo's team. Immediately after the defeat against the weakest team, South Africa, the probability of advancing to the Round of 32 was quite high, but it has been plummeting at a terrifying speed and has now dropped to a level where they must genuinely worry about elimination.

The South Korean national football team, led by Coach Hong Myung-bo, saw its ranking in the battle for third place among groups fall to as low as eighth after Egypt and Iran drew 1-1 in their Group G third-round match at Seattle Stadium in the United States on the 26th (local time).

Earlier, South Korea suffered a shocking 0-1 defeat against South Africa, finishing with one win and two losses for just three points (goal difference -1, two goals scored), dropping to third place in Group A. This tournament, restructured for the first time with 48 participating nations, grants advancement to the Round of 32 only to the top eight teams among the 12 third-place teams based on their records. Just the day before, immediately after the final defeat, the prominent statistical media outlet 'Opta' had predicted South Korea's probability of advancing to the Round of 32 at a fairly high 87.6%.

However, that figure plummeted. Starting to drop to 73.3%, the probability fluctuated wildly as upsets occurred one after another whenever the final matches in other groups concluded.

In Group E, Ecuador caused an upset by defeating Germany 2-1, securing four points, while Bosnia and Herzegovina in Group B also settled with four points.

Crucially, Iran drew with Egypt on this day, securing three points and a goal difference of zero, thereby confirming third place in Group G. Consequently, South Korea fell to exactly eighth place among the 12 third-place teams with the best records, trailing Iran on goal difference. According to 'Opta's' supercomputer analysis, South Korea's probability of advancing to the Round of 32 is a mere 31.51%.

Currently, ahead of South Korea are Sweden, Ecuador, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Paraguay (all with four points), followed by Senegal, Iran, and Croatia (all with three points).

With a faint hope, Hong Myung-bo's team can only silently train and gaze at the scoreboards in other stadiums.

Even amidst such desperate numerical changes, the command staff and players of Hong Myung-bo's team did not give up. Key national team players Son Heung-min and Lee Kang-in unanimously stated, "We will rebuild the team in any way possible and prepare for the next match." Coach Hong Myung-bo also said, "It is not over yet. We will achieve good results in the Round of 32, and the players will receive applause again." In reality, the national team is silently shedding sweat at the Chivas Verde Valle training camp, their base camp located in Guadalajara, Mexico, devoting themselves to recovery training for the next stage.

The lifeline of Hong Myung-bo's team has not been completely cut yet. Depending on the results of the final matches in Groups L, K, and J, there are still scenarios where they can barely scrape into the Round of 32.

Currently, Croatia in Group L, which is one step above South Korea in seventh place (three points, goal difference -1), has played only two matches (one win, one loss), so their ranking can change depending on the final match results. Group L currently has England (one win, one draw), Ghana (one win, one draw), and Panama (two losses) entangled, meaning a team other than Croatia could also drop to third place in the group. For South Korea to catch the last train to the Round of 32, they need to satisfy at least two of the scenarios remaining in Groups L, K, and J to advance to the tournament.

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*This content was translated by AI.