Lee Kang-in was signed, but the probability of winning the UCL is only 3%: "ATM is always a bridesmaid"... Kim Min-jae's Bayern Munich is expected to reach at least the semifinals

*This content was translated by AI.

Expectations for Atletico Madrid of Spain, which has significantly strengthened its squad by adding even Lee Kang-in, an ace of the South Korean national football team, were more modest than anticipated. In contrast, Bayern Munich of Germany, where Kim Min-jae plays, is regarded as a strong contender to challenge for the top spot on the "stage of stars."

The Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) conducted the draw for the 2026–2027 UEFA Champions League (UCL) league phase in Monaco on the 28th (Korean time).

In the UCL league phase, which features a total of 36 teams, each team plays four home matches and four away matches against eight different opponents. The top eight teams in the final standings advance directly to the round of 16, while teams ranked 9th through 24th compete for the remaining round of 16 spots via playoffs. Teams ranked 25th through 36th are eliminated immediately.

As a result of the draw, both Atletico and Munich were placed in Pot 1 and will face each other.

Atletico welcomed Lee Kang-in this summer. After playing for the French powerhouse Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) until last season, Lee Kang-in began a new challenge at Atletico after accumulating an impressive record of three league titles and two UCL championships over three seasons. Kim Min-jae has been a key defensive asset for Munich since 2023.

The two players will face each other on the UCL stage for three consecutive seasons. In the previous two matchups, Munich emerged victorious both times. This time, Lee Kang-in will represent Atletico against Kim Min-jae's Munich.

In this year's UCL league phase, Atletico will host Munich, along with facing Liverpool (England, away), Manchester United (England, home), PSV Eindhoven (Netherlands, away), Fenerbahce (Turkey, home), Bodø/Glimt (Norway, away), Viking (Norway, home), and Stuttgart (Germany, away).

Munich also faces a challenging schedule. They will play against Arsenal (England, home), Atletico (away), Real Betis (Spain, home), Manchester United (away), Bodø/Glimt (home), Lille (France, away), Slavia Prague (Czech Republic, home), and Viking (away).

However, after the draw was completed, expectations for the two teams among European locals diverged significantly.

The British outlet The Sun analyzed the strength of major participating teams while introducing UCL winning odds for the 2026–2027 season on this day.

The team receiving the highest evaluation was PSG, Lee Kang-in's former club and the "defending champion." Major betting companies Bet365, Betway, and Betfred all set PSG's winning odds at the lowest rate of 5/1. Lower odds indicate a higher perceived probability of winning in the betting market.

Following PSG, Arsenal, Munich, Real Madrid (Spain), and Manchester City (England) were named as major contenders for the title.

Munich's winning odds ranged from 13/2 to 6/1 depending on the bookmaker, reflecting an evaluation level similar to Arsenal, which won the English Premier League (EPL) last season. Converted into simple probability, this corresponds to approximately 13–14%. Munich is thus regarded as a top-tier contender chasing PSG.

Sports specialty outlet Sporting News also viewed Munich's prospects favorably. The outlet positively predicted that "Munich will at least reach the semifinals." It particularly praised their attacking lineup featuring world-class players such as Harry Kane, Jamal Musiala, Luis Díaz, and Michael Olise. The defensive line anchored by Kim Min-jae, Dayot Upamecano, and Jonathan Tah is also considered a key strength enabling Munich to challenge for the title.

In contrast, evaluations for Atletico were cold. All three betting companies set Atletico's winning odds at 33/1. Converted into simple probability, this amounts to only about 3%. Astonishingly, they received the same odds as Aston Villa, which is not even considered a clear title contender in the EPL.

The Sun's assessment was also unfavorable. The outlet described Atletico as "always just a bridesmaid, never becoming the bride," alluding to their dark history of repeatedly reaching the final threshold but failing to lift the UCL trophy.

In fact, Atletico has no UCL championship experience. Although they reached the finals twice in 2014 and 2016, they failed to claim the title both times.

What drew even more attention was that Atletico undertook a major squad overhaul this summer. In addition to Lee Kang-in, they signed numerous players who have proven their competitiveness in Europe's top leagues, including Cristian Romero, Morten Hjulmand, and Alejandro Grimaldo. However, despite the massive investment, they are still not recognized locally as a team capable of reaching the UCL summit.

The Sun stated, "Although Diego Simeone continues to lead the team, there is much doubt about whether he should remain in charge," adding, "Despite significant investment, we do not believe they will finally overcome the last hurdle."

This summer, Atletico experienced not only significant player acquisitions but also notable departures. A representative case is Antoine Griezmann (Orlando City), who was almost synonymous with the club's identity. Additionally, the future of key striker Julián Álvarez became a source of concern. While Álvarez strongly desires a transfer, Atletico has maintained its stance to keep him, deepening the conflict between both sides.

The Sun also pointed out that "Álvarez is pushing for a transfer," citing it as one of the factors for Atletico.

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*This content was translated by AI.