South Korea’s national soccer team faces an unprecedented transformation: Asia set to adopt promotion and relegation as AFC Nations League push gains momentum

*This content was translated by AI.

It is an unprecedented and radical change. As the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) swiftly moves to introduce a European-style Nations League, promotion and relegation are poised to be implemented in the qualifying rounds for the World Cup and the Asian Cup.

Sports outlet ESPN reported on the 4th (Korean time), “The AFC has prepared a draft proposal to introduce a Nations League that will bring seismic changes to the qualification formats for the International Football Federation (FIFA) World Cup and the AFC Asian Cup,” adding, “It is scheduled to officially announce the proposal to establish a new Nations League held every two years starting in 2030 through a briefing for member associations on Tuesday.”

According to the draft, AFC member nations will be divided into three divisions. The top tier, Division 1, and Division 2 will each be allocated 18 countries, while the bottom tier, Division 3, will consist of 11 countries split into three groups.

In particular, the core of this reform proposal is the full introduction of an automatic promotion and relegation system, where teams move between upper and lower leagues based on tournament results, along with promotion/relegation playoffs.

After each biennial tournament concludes, the top two countries in each division are automatically promoted, while the bottom two are relegated. In addition, a promotion/relegation playoff will be held between the bottom four countries of the upper tier and the top four countries of the lower tier to determine additional relegations and promotions. While similar in structure to the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) Nations League, this means that national teams will face a desperate battle against relegation akin to club football leagues, directly tied to World Cup qualification.

The impact will be even greater for tournaments linked to World Cup qualification (first implementation scheduled for 2032–2033). The 18 countries in Division 1 will play 12 matches on a home-and-away basis, with the top six qualifying directly for the World Cup finals. Following that, four countries ranked 7th through 10th will compete in a full-league playoff to vie for the remaining two direct qualification spots and one intercontinental playoff berth. If traditional Asian powerhouses like South Korea are relegated to Division 2 due to poor performance, they will be pushed off a cliff where they cannot even aim for direct World Cup finals qualification in that tournament, no matter how well they perform.

Tournaments linked to Asian Cup qualification (first implementation scheduled for 2030; the Asian Cup finals are being proposed to shift from 2031 to 2032) will also grant finals berths to all 18 countries in Division 1 and the top six countries in Division 2. Furthermore, regardless of the tournament’s qualifying nature, the top eight countries in Division 1 each tournament will determine the inaugural Nations League champion through a quarterfinal home-and-away tournament and semifinals and final held at neutral venues.

Regional divisions considering balance by region and travel distances were excluded. Citing imbalances in the number of participating countries and performance gaps across regions, the AFC opted for an integrated format covering all regions, planning to finalize the draw through pot-based selection and algorithms. The establishment of a separate independent tournament was scrapped early on due to schedule constraints and financial burdens.

Ahead of full implementation, a transitional pilot tournament to lay the groundwork for the promotion and relegation system has also been announced. The AFC proposed holding a pilot tournament in 2028–2029 that would double as qualification for the 2030 World Cup. It plans to divide divisions for the first official tournament based on joint qualifying results rather than FIFA rankings. In the pilot tournament, not only the distribution of World Cup tickets for the upper tier but also automatic promotion and relegation, as well as promotion/relegation playoffs, will be tested in the same manner, completing the structure of the first-generation Nations League launching in 2030.

If this reform proposal, which completely upends the existing framework for World Cup qualification in Asian soccer, becomes reality, national teams are expected to be swept into a vortex of promotion and relegation battles on the Asian stage where not an ounce of complacency is allowed in every match.

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*This content was translated by AI.