Winning Game 1 gives a 70.6% chance, yet Tolerhurst is the starter... A nightmare with a 6.20 ERA against KIA: Why couldn't LG make a different choice?

*This content was translated by AI.View Original

Winning Game 1 gives a 70.6% probability of advancing to the playoffs (PO) (based on a best-of-five series). However, in this crucial first game, the LG Twins have named Anders Tolerhurst (27), who has posted a 6.20 ERA against the KIA Tigers this year, as their starter.

LG and KIA will play Game 1 of the 2026 Shinhan SOL KBO Postseason (PS) Wild Card Series (best-of-five) at Gwangju-KIA Champions Field at 2 p.m. on the 17th. KIA has announced James Neal (33) as their starter, while LG has named Tolerhurst.

The significance of winning the first game in the history of the Wild Card Series is profound. In the 17th best-of-five Wild Card Series held to date, the team that won Game 1 advanced to the PO on 12 occasions. This translates to a probability of 70.6%. Notably, in the last 10 series alone, the Game 1 winner advanced to the next round nine times.

For LG, this is a must-win first game. The team engaged in a fierce battle for third place with KIA until the end of the regular season but was pushed down to fourth after losing 2-4 in the final game in Gwangju on the 12th. Subsequently, LG advanced to the Wild Card Series by defeating the Doosan Bears 4-1 in Game 1 of the Wild Card Decider (WC) on the 14th.

The issue lies in Tolerhurst's head-to-head record against KIA. In this year's regular season, Tolerhurst recorded a 12-11 win-loss record with a 4.24 ERA over 30 games and struck out 126 batters in 163⅓ innings. Specifically, he struggled against KIA in five games, posting a 1-3 record with a 6.20 ERA. He allowed 27 hits (including two home runs) and 14 runs over 20⅓ innings.

He was the losing pitcher in a game against KIA at Jamsil on March 31, and was forced to leave early due to a headshot ejection in Gwangju on May 19. LG suffered a complete defeat with a score of 0-14 at the time. The ill-fated connection with KIA continued when Tolerhurst took the loss again in Gwangju on June 18, allowing three runs over 4⅓ innings.

LG's situation is even more unfavorable. The team led 7-2 in their first nine matchups against KIA this year but lost all of the subsequent seven games. Their season head-to-head record was also reversed to 7-9.

So why did LG put Tolerhurst on the mound for the first game? LG competed with KIA for a direct berth into the Wild Card Series until their final regular-season game. They named Lim Chan-gyu (34) as the starter against KIA in Gwangju on the 12th. However, Lim took the loss, and LG was pushed down to fourth place.

Lim Chan-gyu was also not strong against KIA this year. He started two games against KIA in the regular season, recording a 0-1 record with a 6.23 ERA. He allowed 11 hits and six runs over 8⅔ innings.

Following that, Carlos Karasco (39) started Game 1 of the WC against Doosan on the 14th. Despite the challenging situation of pitching on only four days' rest, Karasco pitched well, allowing one run over six innings to lead LG into the Wild Card Series.

Among the remaining options excluding Karasco, Tolerhurst was the best choice. Although Lim Chan-gyu has secured four days of rest since his start on the 12th, he carries the memory of losing to KIA at the same venue just five days prior. A starter allocation considering the entire best-of-five series is also necessary.

On the other hand, KIA secured time to adjust their starting rotation after clinching a direct berth into the Wild Card Series. This allowed them to name Neal for the first game. Neal recorded a 13-7 win-loss record with a 3.49 ERA in 31 regular-season games this year. He is also the ace who led KIA to a double crown in 2024. However, he did not display a dominant performance against LG this year, posting a 1-1 record with a 4.58 ERA in three games.

There are reasons for LG to place hope in Tolerhurst as well: last year's postseason. In the 2025 Korea Series (KS) against the Hanwha Eagles, Tolerhurst started two games, recording a 2-0 record with a 2.08 ERA. He allowed only 11 hits and three runs over a total of 13 innings. He fulfilled his role in crucial moments, contributing to LG's double crown.

Even more interestingly, he was actually strong against KIA in last year's regular season. He started two games, recording a 2-0 record with a 0.82 ERA. He allowed only one run over 11 innings, effectively suppressing the KIA lineup. This was the complete opposite of his performance this year.

LG also has hope. In the 2024 Wild Card Series against the KT Wiz, LG had experience of losing Game 1 but turning around the series to win 3-2. It is not necessarily true that they must win the first game this time to advance to the PO.

Nevertheless, the high 70.6% PO advancement rate for the Game 1 winner well illustrates the importance of the first game. These two teams, who competed for third place until the very end of the regular season, have met again in the Wild Card Series. Can Tolerhurst wash away his poor performance against KIA this year and regain his form from last fall?

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*This content was translated by AI.View Original