“Autumn ERA 7.74”: Samsung’s Faith in Choi Won-tae Amid ‘Defensive Limitations’ for Koo Ja-wook and ‘Batting Restrictions’ for Kang Min-ho—Can They Secure the 73.8% Probability? [KS1 Preview]

*This content was translated by AI.View Original

A staggering 73.8%. This is the winning probability (31/42) for teams that take Game 1 in the history of the Korea Series. While the situation demands an all-out effort to win Game 1, the Samsung Lions, who played five games in the Playoffs and had only one day of rest, are inevitably at a disadvantage in many respects.

Samsung, which achieved four consecutive unified championships from 2011 to 2014, is once again challenging for the title following their 2024 run.

Samsung and the KT Wiz will begin the 2026 Shinhan SOL KBO Postseason Korea Series at Suwon KT Wiz Park on the 3rd at 6:30 p.m. The series, which determines the champion in a best-of-seven format, will see Games 1 and 2 played in Suwon, Games 3, 4, and 5 in Daegu, and Games 6 and 7 returning to Suwon.

Samsung’s situation is not good. Their biggest enemies are accumulated fatigue and the depletion of their roster strength. Having advanced after a grueling five-game Playoff series, Samsung’s key players are significantly drained. In particular, the chain reaction in the infield/fielding positions is painful. Key hitter Koo Ja-wook cannot perform normal defensive duties due to a hamstring injury and must play as the designated hitter. Consequently, veteran Choi Hyeong-woo, who has played exclusively as the designated hitter this season, must be deployed into unfamiliar outfield defense, creating a sense of unease. Kang Min-ho is also in a situation where he cannot bat normally.

Manager Park Jin-man of Samsung, who attended the Korea Series media day on the 2nd, said, “Our defensive genius Choi Hyeong-woo has been playing defense throughout the Playoffs and keeps nudging me from the side saying it’s ‘too hard.’ Kang Min-ho is also playing every game in poor physical condition.” He added regarding Koo Ja-wook, “(Choi) Hyeong-woo hyung has played a lot as the designated hitter this season but is now going out to defend. Since there are only a few games left, I hope he can push through with more strength,” expressing both regret and gratitude.

To make matters worse, the pitching situation is also grim. Closer Kim Jae-yoon has been sidelined, and as a result, Won Tae-in took on the closer role during the Playoffs. Lee Seung-min has appeared in all five games, leaving him in a state of high fatigue.

Therefore, there is no choice but to place expectations on starting pitcher Choi Won-tae for Game 1. However, objectively, KT’s Daniel Davis is expected to have the advantage. Choi Won-tae pitched 125 innings in 24 games this season, recording a 7-5 record and an ERA of 4.68, which was somewhat disappointing. Against KT, he struggled more, going 0-1 with an ERA of 6.94 in two games. In contrast, Davis has not pitched against Samsung but has posted a 5-2 record with an ERA of 2.13 in 10 games, earning the heavy responsibility of starting Game 1.

Choi Won-tae’s memories of the postseason were also not favorable. Despite extensive experience in past fall baseball, he posted a record of two wins and three losses with one save and three home runs allowed, while his ERA reached 7.74. In the playoffs as well, he started and left much to be desired, allowing two runs over one and two-thirds innings.

However, last year was different. In the Junior Playoffs, he pitched 6 scoreless innings to secure a starting win. In the Playoffs, he pitched in two games for 10⅓ innings, allowing 6 runs (4 earned), and delivered an outstanding performance with a combined ERA of 2.20 across three games.

Manager Park Jin-man also expressed his expectations, saying, “Choi Won-tae was somewhat underperforming in the Playoffs, but he is an experienced and consistent pitcher. I look forward to seeing the form he showed last autumn.”

Of course, there are other factors for hope. Samsung held a slight edge in head-to-head records this season with 9 wins and 7 losses, and their batting form has been rising as they have continued to play games recently. In contrast, KT has rested for about three weeks since the 12th. Although they played practice games, it is expected that time will be needed to sharpen their batting sense.

KT Manager Lee Kang-cheol also said, “Teams coming up from below have their batting form rising, so the number one team must rely on its pitching strength to endure Games 1 and 2.”

Samsung Manager Park Jin-man urged his lineup to strive harder, stating, “We had some recent errors, but our true strength is defense. To break down KT’s excellent pitching staff, our left-handed batting line needs to hit well.”

With extreme physical exhaustion among players in both pitching and batting, coupled with the disadvantage in the starting matchup, all indicators point to a difficult Game 1 for Samsung. Can Samsung, facing off with their stamina at the edge of a cliff, seize the 73.8% championship probability against KT, who boasts a solid mound? To do so, a turnaround performance from Choi Won-tae is essential.

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*This content was translated by AI.View Original