Samsung, a victim of the "14.3% underdog miracle," now chases its own miracle... The key lies in an unquenchable "hot bat" [KS1]

*This content was translated by AI.View Original

14.3%. This is the probability of a lower-seeded team that advanced through the Playoffs (PO) winning the Korea Series. In the history of 35 Korea Series tournaments (excluding seasons before the establishment of the two-league system and the semi-PO format), only five such teams ultimately emerged as champions. However, there is a model case that the Samsung Lions are looking to.

Samsung will begin Game 1 of the 2026 Shinhan SOL KBO Postseason Korea Series (best-of-seven) against the KT Wiz at Suwon KT Wiz Park at 6:30 p.m. on the 3rd.

Although Samsung led the regular season head-to-head record with nine wins and seven losses, the stage is one where they face the KT after playing five games in the POs and having only one day of rest, and their lineup is not fully intact, so it is true that the odds are tilted toward the KT.

Looking at historical cases, the probability of the first-place team that reached the Korea Series first winning the championship was absolutely high. The reason most often cited for why an upset is difficult is the significant physical exhaustion incurred through the Playoffs.

However, a fascinating twist is hidden when closely examining the "conditions for an upset." When classifying PO winners into "teams that played five games" and "teams that ended before five games," teams that fought to a decisive fifth game had a Korea Series championship probability approximately 2.5 times higher.

Among the 35th single-season instances in history, there were 13 cases where a team advanced through the POs with a record of three wins and two losses. Of these, three teams (Lotte in 1992, Doosan in 2015, and SK in 2018) defeated the regular season first-place team to claim the championship, showing a winning probability of 23.1%. Among the 22nd teams that finished the POs early and conserved their energy, only two reached the top: Haitai (PO three wins) in 1989 and Doosan (PO three wins, one loss) in 2001, with a winning probability of just 9.1%.

The physical disadvantage is an undeniable weakness. Teams that have advanced through lower rounds all say "their bodies do not move as they wish." It is a game played with higher tension than ever after completing the 144th-game regular season, and the increasingly chilly weather further stiffens their bodies. For these reasons, unexpected injuries occur, and it is not uncommon for players to take painkillers before taking the field.

Nevertheless, the reason for the underdog's rebellion can be found in momentum. The weakness of the regular season first-place team lies in game feel. It is frequently seen that the first-place team, which rests for about three weeks after finishing the regular season, struggles to ramp up their batting sense in the early stages of the series.

On the other hand, lower-seeded teams often enter the Korea Series with their batting sense at its peak. Although the physical burden is significant, taking only one day of rest can actually help prevent that feel from fading.

Samsung also has a painful memory of becoming a victim of such an underdog. Samsung, which was aiming for five consecutive unified championships, became a victim of an upset by losing four straight games to Doosan, who had advanced to the Korea Series through four semi-PO games and five PO games in 2015, despite winning the first game.

After that, Samsung went on a downward path, and fall baseball was a feast for others until 2021. They have shown firm determination that this time, their Korea Series appearance after 12 years, will be different.

They are also at a disadvantage in the starting rotation. Samsung is in a situation where they cannot field Ariel Hurraco and Chris Fiddick in Games 1 and 2, which are being held on the road. Their goal is to achieve one win and one loss with starters like Choi Won-tae, Jang Chan-hee, and Yang Chang-seop. To do this, a surge from the lineup is essential. The batting sense built up through the POs must explode in the early stages of the series so that they can gain momentum at home when their first and second starters take the mound in Games 3 and 4.

A too-obvious picture diminishes the interest of sports. That is why attention is focused on the underdog's rebellion. Fans' eyes are now concentrated on Suwon on the 3rd to see what kind of picture Samsung can create this time.

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*This content was translated by AI.View Original