* Translated by Papago

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"The quarterfinals are finalized." Japan is relaxed, but there is a way to go up even if Korea loses four points' Scenario Disclosure

Published :
Ahn Hokeun

*This content was translated by AI.

South Korean baseball team players bow to the crowd after losing the 2026 WBC Tokyo POOL match between South Korea and Taiwan at Tokyo Dome on the 8th. /Photo = Senior Reporter Kang Young-jo
South Korean baseball team players bow to the crowd after losing the 2026 WBC Tokyo POOL match between South Korea and Taiwan at Tokyo Dome on the 8th. /Photo = Senior Reporter Kang Young-jo

Korean baseball is on the brink of a precipice where the fate of each point and loss can be determined. On the other hand, Japan, which has already confirmed its advance to the next round with three wins, is in a situation full of room.

According to Japanese sports media Nikkan Sports, Japanese national baseball team coach Hirokazu Ibata said in an official press conference after beating Australia 4-3 on the 8th, "I'm still thinking about the future batting order, but there are some players who haven't played or haven't been able to bat." I'm going to discuss that with the coaches," he said.

Japan won 13-0 cold games against Taiwan, 8-6 against South Korea, and 4-3 against Australia on the 8th, confirming the top spot in the group stage regardless of the results of the Czech Republic remaining in all three games.

It struggled more than expected against South Korea and Australia, but in the end, the results were as expected. Japan gives tired players a break, gives more opportunities to players who are not yet in a good batting position, and allows them to arrange for the next round of games. For South Korea, it is a situation that I can't help but envy.

Manager Ibata said, "It has been three consecutive games so far, and practice games continued before that. Tomorrow (9th) I'm going to take a break and refresh. Even when I go to the United States, I will try to take care of my condition first, so I will work hard on that," he said.

Manager Ibata also said of the relatively difficult climb, "I think the types of pitchers I meet are different. Taiwan and Korea have many similar types of pitchers to Japan, but they seem to struggle when Japanese pitchers and other types of foreign pitchers come out like Australia. "If I go to Miami in the U.S., there will be more pitchers like that, so I think I need to take measures," he said.

The Japanese team is giving high fives after winning the match against Australia on the 8th. Ohtani in the middle. /AFPBBNews=News1
The Japanese team is giving high fives after winning the match against Australia on the 8th. Ohtani in the middle. /AFPBBNews=News1

Japanese media, whose worries about the country have disappeared, are shedding light on the number of cases in Korea. Among them, one unusual prediction scenario was also disclosed.

South Korea can reach the quarterfinals as the second-ranked team in the group only if it plays more than five points and two runs or less against Australia, and it has revealed another possibility. Baseball columnist Une Natsuki said, "Korea has a 'miracle path' to the quarterfinals even in three runs."

If South Korea catches Australia in the WBC group league's ranking regulations, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia will have the same winning rate and the same winning rate between the same teams, so the losing rate between the same teams will be considered next.

In this case, if South Korea is ahead by less than five points in the ninth inning, it could be one way to allow a tie and go to the extension. Although it is a very rare situation, for example, if you enter an extension of 4-4 and end the game with 9-4 by scoring five points in the 14th inning, you can reach the quarterfinals even if you lose more than two points. In this case, the loss rate between the three teams will be 0.125 (9 runs/72 outs), which can beat Taiwan (0.130) and Australia (0.130).

Likewise, if they go 3-3 in extra time, even if they add five points in the 11th inning to win 8-3, South Korea can advance to the next round with a 0.127 run rate, beating Taiwan (0.130) and Australia (0.133).

It is a very difficult scenario to realize, such as the fact that there should be no runs even in overtime and that five runs must be driven out in one inning. The most certain thing is to finish by blocking more than five runs and less than two runs within the regular inning. It's a cliffhanger where you have to put everything into just one game.

The national baseball team's team is unable to hide its regret after losing to Taiwan. /Photo = Senior Reporter Kang Young-jo
The national baseball team's team is unable to hide its regret after losing to Taiwan. /Photo = Senior Reporter Kang Young-jo

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*This content was translated by AI.

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