*This content was translated by AI.
A statistical media outlet specializing in football has forecast that there is a significant possibility that the South Korean national football team will be eliminated in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA North America World Cup. The analysis suggests that the team is "unpredictable," with nearly equal chances of finishing first in the group stage and plummeting to fourth place.
According to the updated group stage A group ranking probabilities for the North America World Cup by football statistical media Opta on the 27th, South Korea's probability of finishing first in the group is 22.51%, second is 28.18%, third is 27.08%, and fourth is 22.22%. In this World Cup, the top two teams from each group advance to the Round of 32, and the top eight teams among the 12 third-place finishers with the best records also advance to the tournament.
Opta's forecast generally leans toward South Korea's chances of advancing to the Round of 32. The combined probability of finishing first or second, which are the qualifying positions for the group stage, reaches 50.69%, and the probability of finishing third, from which eight of the 12th teams can advance to the Round of 32, is also substantial. Opta predicts South Korea's expected points will be 4.1, meaning they will at least achieve "one win and one draw" in the group stage.
The problem is that the probability of being eliminated directly in the group stage by finishing fourth is also predicted at 22.22%, a level that cannot be ignored. The probability of South Korea finishing last in the group and being eliminated is predicted to be nearly the same as the probability of finishing first in the group and advancing to the Round of 32. South Korea is the only team in Group A where the probabilities for finishing first through fourth are all predicted to be in the 20th% range.
In contrast, Mexico's probability of finishing first in the group is as high as 48.13%, second is 26.44%, third is 16.16%, and the lowest, fourth, is only 9.28%. Czechia has the highest probability of finishing third at 28.5%, followed by fourth at 27.36%, second at 26.04%, and first at 18.09%. South Africa, considered the weakest team, has the highest probability of finishing fourth at 41.13%, followed by third at 28.26%, second at 19.34%, and first at 11.27%.
This aligns with foreign media assessments that present the World Cup outlook for South Korea as "extreme opposites." With a FIFA ranking of 25th, the second highest in Group A, and a squad featuring Son Heung-min (LAFC), Lee Kang-in (Paris Saint-Germain), Hwang Hee-chan (Wolverhampton), Kim Min-jae (Bayern Munich), and Oh Hyeon-gyu (Besiktas), the South Korean team's strength is receiving quite positive evaluations. It is common to assess South Korea's chances of advancing to the Round of 32 highly, citing their undefeated run through the Asian qualifiers and their previous World Cup Round of 16 performance.
However, foreign media assessments that evaluate the situation facing the South Korean national team more deeply present the opposite view. For instance, early this month, the British influential daily The Guardian released a shocking forecast ranking South Korea's strength as 44th among the 48th nations participating in the World Cup finals. This assessment is based on recent poor form, such as a 0-4 heavy defeat against Côte d'Ivoire last month, and criticisms regarding their unstable three-back tactical system. This is also why Opta's latest prediction that South Korea has a non-negligible probability of being eliminated in the World Cup group stage by finishing fourth in the group cannot be easily overlooked.
Meanwhile, head coach Hong Myung-bo will announce the final World Cup roster on the 16th of next month and depart for the U.S., the site of the pre-camp, on the 18th. The Hong Myung-bo-led team will play two friendly matches in the U.S. before heading to the "decisive ground" Mexico on June 5. South Korea will face Czechia at 11 a.m. on June 12, Mexico at 10 a.m. on the 19th, and South Africa at 10 a.m. on the 25th in sequence.
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*This content was translated by AI.
