Japan faces crisis of 'early exit' from World Cup; likelihood of facing Brazil in Round of 32 grows

*This content was translated by AI.

The Japanese national soccer team, which set its sights on 'winning' the 2026 FIFA North American World Cup, has been pushed toward the risk of an 'early exit' even if it reaches the Round of 32 tournament. This is because there is a growing possibility that it will face 'title favorite' Brazil in its first knockout match.

Football statistics media Footballdatabase (FMD) lowered Japan's probability of finishing first in Group F to 12% shortly after the Netherlands defeated Sweden 5-1 in the second match of Group F at Houston Stadium on the 21st (Korean time). In contrast, the Netherlands' probability reached 79%.

The Netherlands, which scored five goals against Sweden on this day, rose to the top of the group with 4 points (1 win, 1 draw). Sweden is in second place with 3 points (1 win, 1 loss). Japan (1 point) is set to face Tunisia (0 points) in a match scheduled for 1 p.m. on this day.

In particular, the Netherlands' decisive victory over Sweden has made Japan's challenge to finish first in the group stage more difficult. Even if Japan ties the Netherlands in points, it must overcome the goal difference, with the Netherlands at +4 and Japan at 0 at this point.

In the group stage of this tournament, if points are tied, head-to-head results take precedence; however, Japan drew 2-2 with the Netherlands, so rankings will be determined by overall group stage performance. Japan's probability of finishing first in the group has dropped significantly to 12%, which is interpreted as requiring not only favorable results in the remaining two matches but also a higher goal tally to enable a comeback against the Netherlands.

Conversely, Japan's probability of finishing second in the group rose to 46%. The probability of finishing third is 34%, and fourth is 9%. Sweden, having played one more match than Japan, has a 32% probability of finishing second, 57% for third, and 2% for fourth.

The problem is that the most likely opponent for Japan in the Round of 32, should it finish second in Group F, is the winner of Group C according to the tournament bracket. Group C includes formidable teams such as Brazil and Morocco, and the current intermediate leader of Group C, with only the final match remaining, is none other than Brazil. Even if Japan reaches the Round of 32 as the group's second-place finisher, it may have to face Brazil in a single-match showdown to advance to the Round of 16.

In fact, FMD raised the probability of a Round of 32 matchup between Brazil and Japan to 28%, an increase of 5.2 percentage points from before. Both Brazil and Japan consider each other the most probable opponent in the Round of 32.

Of course, Japan surprised the world by defeating Brazil 3-2 in an A-match friendly in October last year. At that time, Brazil had just secured a 5-0 victory over South Korea at Seoul World Cup Stadium before losing 2-3 to Japan. However, if a rematch takes place at the Round of 32 stage of the World Cup, whether Brazil will be shaken by Japan again remains uncertain. It is more likely that Brazil will prepare thoroughly for the match against Japan. Although Japan won in the friendly, from Japan's perspective, a rematch against Brazil will inevitably be a challenging matchup.

Depending on the results of the final Group C matches, Morocco could finish first in Group C instead of Brazil. However, Morocco, which reached the semifinals of the 2022 Qatar World Cup and won the 2024 Africa Cup of Nations, is equally a difficult opponent for Japan. If Japan barely reaches the Round of 32 by finishing third instead of first or second in the group, it will face one of the two host nations, the United States and Mexico, whose qualification is already secured, or the winner of Group B, E, or I.

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*This content was translated by AI.