'The group stage isn't over yet?' A 32nd-round scenario of South Korea vs. Switzerland has already emerged... 16th-round qualification probability is '35%'

*This content was translated by AI.

Despite the defeat against Mexico, Hong Myung-bo's team still has a high probability of advancing to the 32nd round of the 2026 FIFA North American World Cup.

Sports statistics firm 'Opta' projected on the 21st (Korea time) that South Korea's chance of reaching the 32nd round is 91.22%. The analysis suggests that South Korea will comfortably advance from the group stage as the second-place team in Group A, following Mexico. In contrast, the chances for Czechia and South Africa, which are in the same group, were predicted to be significantly lower at 30.7% and 18.4%, respectively.

Currently, South Korea is in second place in the group with one win and one loss (3 points) after winning the first match against Czechia (2-1) and losing the second match against Mexico (0-1). The host nation Mexico, with two consecutive wins, has already secured first place in the group. South Korea will face South Africa in the final third match on the 25th at 10 a.m. at the Monterrey Stadium. Even a draw would be enough for South Korea to advance directly to the 32nd round as the second-place team in the group. This is because, under tournament regulations that prioritize head-to-head records in case of a tie in points, South Korea would still rank ahead even if tied with Czechia at four points.

If South Korea loses to South Africa, the results of the Mexico-Czechia match must be watched. If Mexico defeats Czechia, South Korea will finish third in the group and must compete with third-place teams from other groups based on performance (points, goal difference, goals scored, etc.) to secure a spot among the top eight teams to aim for the 32nd round. However, if Czechia defeats Mexico, South Korea will finish fourth in the group and be eliminated in last place.

If South Korea advances to the 32nd round as the second-place team in the group, it is expected to compete with Switzerland, a likely second-place team in Group B, for a spot in the 16th round in Los Angeles, USA. Opta also identified Switzerland as South Korea's opponent in the 32nd round.

Currently, Switzerland, which is in second place in Group B, ranks 19th in the FIFA rankings, slightly higher than South Korea (24th), and their head-to-head record stands at one win and one loss, making it even. Opta predicted that if the 32nd-round matchup takes place, Switzerland's probability of winning is high at 62.7%, while South Korea's chance of defeating Switzerland and advancing to the 16th round is estimated at 35.25%.

<© STARNEWS. All rights reserved. No reproduction or redistribution allowed.>

*This content was translated by AI.