"This is a first-time scenario": Even Hong Myung-bo faces an unfamiliar situation; South Korea's "biggest rival" in the Round of 32 is separate

*This content was translated by AI.

It will be decided whether the South Korean national football team will advance to the Round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North, Central America and the Caribbean. The number of scenarios to pass the group stage is a draw or better against South Africa. Even Coach Hong Myung-bo remarked, "I don't think there has ever been a scenario like this," indicating a comfortable situation, but complacency is not allowed.

Under the leadership of Coach Hong Myung-bo, South Korea will face South Africa in the final Group A match of the tournament at the Monterrey Stadium in Mexico on the 25th at 10 a.m. (Korean time). South Korea sits in second place in the group with 3 points (1 win, 1 loss), while South Africa is in last place with 1 point (1 draw, 1 loss), and they will face each other. According to the FIFA rankings, South Korea is 25th and South Africa is 60th. This is the first-ever head-to-head match between South Korea and South Africa.

Mexico (6 points, 2 wins) is the only team in Group A that has already secured first place and advanced to the Round of 32. Whether South Korea, Czech Republic (1 point), and South Africa advance to the Round of 32 depends on the results of the final matches. However, among these three teams, South Korea has an overwhelmingly high probability of advancing. Sports statistics outlet Opta predicted South Korea's chance of advancing to the Round of 32 at 89.96%. Czech Republic stands at only 29.76%, and South Africa at just 20.34%. This means South Korea is significantly more favorable in the competition for the Round of 32.

In reality, South Korea is guaranteed to advance to the Round of 32 on its own as long as it does not lose to South Africa. However, under the head-to-head rule, it cannot surpass Mexico to take first place in the group, nor can it fall to third place in the group by being overtaken by Czech Republic. As long as South Korea achieves a draw or better against South Africa, it will automatically finish second in the group and advance to the Round of 32. Even if South Korea loses to South Africa, there remains a possibility of advancing to the Round of 32. This would require Czech Republic to draw or lose to Mexico in the simultaneous Mexico vs. Czech Republic match. In that case, South Korea would drop to third place in the group, but its advancement to the Round of 32 would be determined by comparing its record with other third-place teams from other groups. In this tournament, the top eight third-place teams among the 12th groups with the best records will also advance from the group stage to the Round of 32.

Such a favorable situation where a draw is acceptable ahead of the final match is unfamiliar for South Korean football, which has always approached the World Cup as a challenger. Even experienced Coach Hong Myung-bo, when asked about this scenario during a pre-match press conference, said, "When calculating the scenarios, I don't think there has ever been a scenario like this (a draw or better). There have been many scenarios where we had to win to advance."

However, these favorable conditions could turn into a "poison." It could lead to careless play by the players. Moreover, the opponent, South Africa, is a match where they must defeat South Korea. South Korea's complacency could lead to unexpected results.

If South Korea loses to South Africa, its ranking could drop to fourth place immediately depending on the result of the simultaneous Mexico vs. Czech Republic match. If Czech Republic defeats Mexico, the Group A standings would be: Mexico (6 points), Czech Republic and South Africa (both 4 points, with 2nd and 3rd places decided by goal difference), and South Korea (3 points). Fourth place means elimination from the group stage and an immediate return home. Furthermore, Mexico has already secured first place in the group, so rotation is expected in their match against Czech Republic, including the selection of a 41-year-old goalkeeper. Czech Republic's chances of winning against Mexico are by no means slim. In the worst-case scenario, there is even a possibility of South Korea being eliminated from the group stage.

Coach Hong Myung-bo, too, has forgotten about the scenario where a draw is acceptable and is determined to advance to the Round of 32 by defeating South Africa. Coach Hong stated, "(The scenarios) are not bad, but I don't think they offer any special advantage. It's actually a difficult match." He added, "Since the opponent is also tough, thinking that a draw is acceptable could put us in a difficult position. We will not give up and will approach the match with the mindset of winning."

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*This content was translated by AI.