'Finally, the lowest in history': South Korea's 32-team tournament qualification probability plummets to '31.51%', ranking 10th out of 12 teams

*This content was translated by AI.

South Korea's probability of advancing to the 32nd-team tournament at the 2026 FIFA North, Central America and Caribbean World Cup under coach Hong Myung-bo has fallen to the lowest level in history at 31.51%. This ranks 10th among the 12th teams in third place in their respective groups. The cutoff line for advancing to the 32nd-team tournament is '8th place'.

Football statistics firm Opta lowered South Korea's probability of advancing to the 32nd-team tournament to 31.51% immediately after the final Group G matches, including Egypt vs. Iran, were concluded on the 27th (Korea time) at Seattle Stadium in the United States. This is the lowest probability assigned to the South Korean national team before and after the opening of this North, Central America and Caribbean World Cup.

On that day, Opta lowered South Korea's probability of advancing to the 32nd-team tournament to 36.04% immediately after Senegal's 5-0 victory over Iraq. Later, thanks to Uruguay's defeat against Spain, it was adjusted to 48.92%, close to 50%, but when Iran drew against Egypt, South Korea's third-place ranking in the group dropped one step, ultimately falling to the lowest level of 31.51%.

With Iran's draw on that day, South Korea was pushed to the cutoff line of 8th place among the third-place teams in each group. Sweden, Ecuador, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Paraguay (all with 4 points), and Senegal (3 points) have already secured their spots in the 32nd-team tournament. Iran, Croatia, and South Korea follow. South Korea currently has 3 points (1 win, 2 losses) and a goal difference of -1. While South Korea shares the same points as Iran and Croatia, it trails in both goal difference and goals scored.

The problem is that Croatia, along with Algeria in Group J and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Group K, have not yet played their final matches. The final results of these teams will be determined by the outcomes of the final matches on the 28th. Alternatively, other teams could rise to third place in their respective groups, requiring a comparison of results with South Korea. South Korea can only advance to the 32nd-team tournament if the results of two out of the three remaining third-place teams are worse than South Korea's. Currently, South Korea is ranked ahead of only two teams: Scotland and Uruguay.

However, the probability of South Korea, currently in 8th place—the cutoff line—maintaining that position is not very high. Opta's predicted probability of South Korea advancing to the 32nd-team tournament is only 10th out of 12 teams. In addition to the five teams that have already secured their spots in the 32nd-team tournament, Croatia (85.89%), Iran (85.83%), Algeria (68.28%), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (41.41%) have higher probabilities than South Korea. Scotland has a probability of 0.05%, and Uruguay has already been eliminated.

The fate of coach Hong Myung-bo's team will be decided on the 28th. In Group L, if Croatia draws with Ghana, it will be ahead of South Korea regardless of which team finishes third. The problem is that even with a draw, Croatia will advance to the 32nd-team tournament in third place, and Ghana has already secured its spot in the 32nd-team tournament. In Group J, second-place Austria and third-place Algeria, who are set to face each other, can both advance to the 32nd-team tournament with just a draw. In Group K, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is facing its final match against Uzbekistan with the condition that a win guarantees advancement to the 32nd-team tournament. There is not a single positive factor for coach Hong Myung-bo's team in the situations of the remaining three groups.

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*This content was translated by AI.