'Still Desperate': South Korea's 32-Team Qualification Odds Remain Below 50% Despite Spain's First Assist

*This content was translated by AI.

The number of possible scenarios for the South Korea national football team to qualify for the 2026 FIFA North, Central America and Caribbean World Cup 32-team tournament has finally decreased by one. However, even so, the situation remains far from hopeful. The probability of qualifying for the 32nd-team tournament still stands below 50%.

South Korea, led by head coach Hong Myung-bo, managed to revive its hopes thanks to Spain's 1-0 victory over Uruguay in the Group H third-round match held on the 27th (Korea time) at Guadalajara Stadium in Zapopan, Jalisco, Mexico. With Spain defeating Uruguay on this day, Uruguay dropped to third place in Group H. Uruguay has only two points (two draws, one loss).

As a result, South Korea (3 points, goal difference –1) has surpassed not only Scotland (3 points, goal difference –3) but also Uruguay, totaling two teams. In this tournament, not only the top two teams from each group but also the top eight third-placed teams among the 12th groups will advance to the 32nd-team tournament. As the third-placed team in Group A, South Korea must surpass four other third-placed teams from different groups to reach the 32nd-team tournament. After the group stage, South Korea repeatedly found its possible scenarios falling short, but for the first time, it surpassed one team thanks to Spain's assistance on this day.

However, there is still no cause for relief. Football statistics outlet Opta adjusted South Korea's probability of qualifying for the 32nd-team tournament to 48.92% immediately after the final Group H matches concluded. Although the probability rose from 36.04% before the Group H matches, it remains below 50%. In fact, among the 12 third-placed teams from each group, South Korea ranks ninth in terms of probability. This is the "elimination ranking" for the group stage.

South Korea now must hope that in half of the remaining four groups, two teams with worse records than South Korea will emerge. However, Opta predicted that Belgium, which has not yet played its final match, has a 91.71% probability of qualifying, Croatia has 88.88%, and Algeria has 74%. The only team with a lower probability than South Korea without having played its final match is the Democratic Republic of the Congo (41.53%). If the probabilities hold true, South Korea's qualification for the 32nd-team tournament will be in vain.

Whether the Hong Myung-bo-led team will qualify for the 32nd-team tournament will ultimately be confirmed on the 28th, the final match day. On the 27th at noon, the final Group G matches featuring Egypt vs. Iran and New Zealand vs. Belgium will be held. On the 27th, the final group stage matches will be held in the order of Group L, Group K, and Group J. For the Hong Myung-bo-led team, this is a situation where they must anxiously await the results.

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*This content was translated by AI.