'How could this be' — even basketball has cruel scenarios! Depending on the result of the Taiwan-China match held first on the 6th, the Korea-Japan showdown will face a desperate cliff-edge situation.

*This content was translated by AI.

The South Korean men's national basketball team fell into a complex quagmire of "possible scenarios" after suffering a shocking comeback defeat against Taiwan at home. Compounding the trouble, the participation of ace player Lee Jung-hyun (27, Goyang Sono) remains uncertain. If South Korea wins its match against Japan on the 6th, it can qualify for the next round on its own; however, if it loses, it will be forced into a desperate situation where it must rely on Taiwan defeating China to advance by the narrowest margin.

Led by head coach Nicholas Mazulis (46), the South Korean national team lost 80-82 in an extended thriller against Taiwan during Window 3 of Group B in the "2027 FIBA Basketball World Cup Asian Qualifiers" held at Goyang Sono Arena on the 3rd. Leading by as much as 19 points and holding a 16-point lead at the end of the third quarter, South Korea suffered a painful comeback defeat after enduring a severe scoring drought in the fourth quarter. This loss left South Korea with an overall qualifying record of two wins and three losses.

Due to this defeat, South Korea finds itself in a highly unfavorable position in the race for one of the top three spots in Group B that advance to the second round. To finish within the top three with its current 2-3 record, there are essentially two possible scenarios for South Korea.

Fate's dice will be rolled first in the match between China and Taiwan scheduled for 3:30 p.m. on the 6th at Goyang Sono Arena, ahead of South Korea's crucial game against Japan. The outcome of this preliminary match will completely alter the final scenario South Korea faces. Although this match was originally scheduled to be played in China, it has been moved to neutral ground in South Korea due to recent diplomatic tensions between the two countries. Depending on the result of this game held first on Korean soil, the final scenario for South Korea will be entirely reshaped.

If China defeats Taiwan in the earlier match, South Korea's only remaining option is to "defeat Japan." Should China win, Taiwan would finish with a 2-4 record. In that case, if South Korea beats Japan to reach a 3-3 record (9 points), it would secure at least third place in the group and advance to the second round regardless of the result between China and Taiwan. However, if South Korea also loses to Japan and finishes with a 2-4 record, it would be eliminated in fourth place due to inferior head-to-head records against Taiwan (two losses). In other words, the moment Taiwan loses to China, South Korea's "loser's revival" scenario (advancing thanks to Taiwan's loss) disappears, forcing it into a desperate cliff-edge situation where it must win unconditionally against Japan to advance on its own.

Conversely, if Taiwan defeats China, South Korea can face the match against Japan in a much more relaxed position. Should Taiwan win, even if South Korea loses to Japan and finishes with an identical 2-4 record, it would still advance by the narrowest margin as third place because, under FIBA rules, it holds a perfect 2-0 head-to-head record against China. Of course, if South Korea defeats Japan to reach a 3-3 record, it would cleanly secure advancement on its own.

Ultimately, depending on the result of the Taiwan-China match scheduled for 3:30 p.m. on the 6th, South Korea will either step onto the court under the pressure of "having to win against Japan unconditionally" or achieve a graceful victory with a relatively relaxed mindset. With ace player and field commander Lee Jung-hyun out of the lineup, South Korea may need to defeat Japan — which had previously dominated China 92-73 in their fifth match held on the 3rd in Shenyang, China, showcasing a solid team strength — making the outcome of this earlier match more critical than ever.

Coach Mazulis appeared well aware of this cruel arithmetic that South Korea must face even before stepping onto the court. When reporters asked whether the probability of advancing had become extremely low, Coach Mazulis firmly stated, "It is true that our chances of advancing have decreased significantly compared to before. However, we still have opportunities remaining. Since it is not over yet, we will do our utmost until the end," before leaving the press conference room.

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*This content was translated by AI.