'Is this another case of possibilities?' Still, it’s not complicated: if China is beaten, qualification for the final comes by our own strength; a loss complicates matters. [Aichi Nagoya AG]

*This content was translated by AI.

Is there no easy path? Again, it comes down to possibilities. Another crisis has struck the national team, which dreams of a fifth consecutive Asian Games baseball title.

The national baseball team led by head coach Ryu Ji-hyun (55) lost 0-5 to Japan in the first match of the super round for the 2026 Aichi-Nagoya Asian Games baseball tournament held on the 25th at Toyohashi Citizens Stadium in Aichi Prefecture, Japan.

South Korea, which defeated Taiwan 5-0 in the group stage and advanced to the super round with one win, now stands at 1 win and 1 loss following today's defeat. There is no guarantee of reaching the final until the very end.

First, China must be defeated unconditionally on the 26th. Based on this premise, various scenarios can be considered.

Assuming South Korea defeats China, the most certain scenario is for Japan to beat Taiwan. Japan would finish with three wins, South Korea with two wins and one loss, while Taiwan and China would have one win and two losses, and three losses respectively, clearly determining the standings. In this case, South Korea and Japan would meet again in the final.

If Taiwan defeats Japan, the scenarios become complicated. When teams are tied, their team performance balance index (TQB) is compared. South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan would all finish with two wins and one loss. The runs scored and allowed per inning between tied teams would then be evaluated. South Korea would have 17 innings on both offense and defense, scoring five runs and allowing five, resulting in a TQB of zero.

Regardless of the outcome between Taiwan and Japan, one team will end up with a negative TQB, securing South Korea's advancement to the final. If Taiwan defeats Japan 5-0, all three teams would have a net run difference of zero, but differences in offensive and defensive innings would determine the result. Taiwan, playing 18 innings on offense and 17 on defense, would finish with a TQB of -0.0163 and be eliminated. In short, if South Korea defeats China, reaching the final becomes possible. This is the cleanest scenario.

Of course, even if South Korea loses to China, elimination is not automatically confirmed. However, in that case, the situation becomes far more complicated.

If South Korea loses to China, it would finish with one win and two losses. In this scenario, Japan must defeat Taiwan. South Korea, China, and Taiwan would all be tied at one win and two losses, requiring a TQB comparison.

Taiwan's TQB is fixed at 0.147. Depending on the result of the match between South Korea and China, one team will advance to face Japan in the final.

South Korea starts as the second batter in its match against China. If they lose, both offense and defense would cover nine innings. The same applies to China.

Even if South Korea loses to China, elimination is not automatic. China is actually in the most disadvantageous position because it allowed nine runs while scoring only one against Taiwan. With Taiwan's TQB fixed at 0.147, if South Korea loses to China by a two-run margin, its TQB would rise to 0.183, securing second place and advancement to the final.

In case of a three-run loss, the final score could result in either trailing or surpassing Taiwan. Even with a three-run deficit, scoring seven or more runs is necessary to have any chance of victory.

The calculations may seem complicated, but simply put, defeating China is sufficient. If South Korea also loses to China, even if it barely reaches the final, dreaming of winning the championship becomes increasingly difficult.

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*This content was translated by AI.