Betting on a bar near LA paid off! A contrarian bet of 80 million won on the "Dodgers' elimination" was a huge success, returning double the amount

*This content was translated by AI.View Original

There were those who quietly smiled amid the shocking postseason elimination of the Los Angeles Dodgers of Major League Baseball (MLB).

The Reuters news agency reported on the 17th (Korean time) that "according to the US prediction market platform Kalshi, a food and beverage company operating 25 bars in Los Angeles made a trade worth $60,000 (approximately 80 million won) on the possibility of the Dodgers' postseason elimination."

The company, known as Pouring With Hearts, has many of its locations situated near Dodger Stadium. Consequently, its revenue was inevitably heavily influenced by whether or not there were postseason games. If the Dodgers kept winning, home games would continue through to the World Series, increasing the number of baseball fans visiting the stores; however, if the Dodgers were eliminated early, the expected revenue would vanish accordingly.

According to Reuters, "Pouring With Hearts" utilized the latter risk as a form of insurance. The company invested $60,000 through the Kalshi platform on the outcome that the Dodgers would not advance to the next round. And indeed, with the Dodgers' elimination, this trade hit the mark. According to Kalshi, "Pouring With Hearts" received back an amount nearly double its initial investment.

As a result, "Pouring With Hearts" partially offset the loss of revenue it could have earned from additional postseason home games due to the Dodgers' early exit by using profits gained from prediction market trades. Reuters explained this as "a case of hedging business risks that are difficult to secure with existing financial products through prediction markets."

Looking at the outcome, it was an excellent choice. The Dodgers topped the National League (NL) West division in this season's regular standings with a record of 100 wins and 62 losses, for a winning percentage of .617. Given that they had won the World Series consecutively in 2024 and 2025, attention was also focused on the possibility of achieving their first three-peat since the New York Yankees from 1998 to 2000.

The postseason start was not bad either. The Dodgers defeated the Atlanta Braves 3 games to 1 in the Division Series (NLDS) and advanced to the NL Championship Series (NLCS) for the third consecutive year. However, they faced the Milwaukee Brewers again—whom they had dominated with a four-game sweep last year in the NLCS—and received the exact opposite result.

The Dodgers failed to win a single game after losing Game 1. In the final Game 4, Shohei Ohtani (32) hit his first home run in about two months, a three-run homer that gave them a 4-0 lead, but they were ultimately overturned to lose 4-6. The defending champions' season ended with an unexpected sweep, falling 0 games to 4 in the series. Meanwhile, Milwaukee succeeded in reaching the World Series for the first time in 44 years.

An even more interesting aspect is the relationship between the Dodgers and Kalshi. In August of last year, the Dodgers signed a multi-year partnership with Kalshi, designating it as the team's official exclusive prediction market partner. Not only did they install LED advertising inside Dodger Stadium, but they also changed the name of the existing "Gold Glove Bar" to the "Kalshi 435 Club." It is ironic that trades on Kalshi predicting the Dodgers' elimination actually served as a loss-prevention measure for a local LA business.

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*This content was translated by AI.View Original