'Top 32 Cut Line for Third-Place Teams Confirmed': Hong Myung-bo's Scenarios Become 'Even More Desperate'

*This content was translated by AI.

The cut lines for third-place teams from each group heading to the 2026 FIFA World Cup North, Central America and Caribbean 32 teams have been confirmed. The threshold is 3 points and a goal difference of +1. Third-place teams can now advance to the 32nd teams unconditionally by accumulating just 4 points, regardless of goal difference. However, it is particularly unfortunate that there are many third-place teams likely to pass the 'cut line' in the final three groups. This is a desperate situation for Hong Myung-bo.

South Korea, led by coach Hong Myung-bo, finished third in Group A of the tournament's group stage with 3 points (1 win, 2 losses) and a goal difference of -1 (2 goals scored, 3 conceded). Now, they must compare their results with third-place teams from other groups and finish within the top 8 among the 12th teams. As of the 27th, when nine groups have completed their matches, South Korea's standing among third-place teams is exactly at the 'line' of 8th place. The final group stage matches for the remaining three groups will be held consecutively on the 28th.

For Hong Myung-bo's team to advance to the 32nd teams, two of the remaining three third-place teams must have worse records than South Korea. Currently, only Scotland (goal difference -3) and Uruguay (3 points) have worse records than South Korea. Among these, Uruguay has already been eliminated. In the final group stage matches of the remaining three groups, two teams must finish in positions lower than South Korea for South Korea to maintain 8th place. Conversely, if two teams finish in positions higher than South Korea, South Korea will have to return home.

However, when examining the situations in the three groups that will determine South Korea's fate for the 32nd teams, there is little hope left for South Korea. This is because, with the cut lines for third-place teams to reach the 32nd teams now confirmed, there are quite a few third-place teams that have no need to push themselves in their final matches.

In Group J, second-place Austria and third-place Algeria (both with 3 points) will face each other. If they draw, both teams will advance to the 32nd teams, but if they lose, they could be eliminated. In particular, third-place Algeria is already confirmed to be eliminated if they compete for the 32nd teams among third-place teams with their current record. Their top priority is to secure at least 1 point to guarantee advancement to the 32nd teams. Austria, which will maintain second place even with a draw, also has no need to push themselves. Unless Algeria overreaches, there is a high probability that a consensus will form between the benches of both teams for a draw to advance to the 32nd teams as the match progresses into the second half. A draw between the two teams would be a major disaster for South Korea.

The situation in Group L is not significantly different. Top-placed England and second-placed Ghana (both with 4 points) have already secured their spots in the 32nd teams. They are followed by Croatia (3 points) and Panama (0 points). Panama has already been eliminated. The only team in Group L whose advancement to or elimination from the 32nd teams has not been confirmed is Croatia. The final matches will be Croatia vs. Ghana and England vs. Panama. While there is a possibility for Panama to finish third, it is slim since it requires a victory against the 'champion favorite' England.

For South Korea, the result of Croatia's match against Ghana is ultimately crucial. Ghana's advancement to the 32nd teams, which is already secured with 1 point ahead of Croatia, is possible because even if they lose to Croatia and drop to third place, they can still advance to the 32nd teams having accumulated 4 points. Conversely, Croatia cannot be certain of advancing to the 32nd teams with their current record. However, if they draw with Ghana, they will cross the cut line for third-place teams to reach the 32nd teams and secure their advancement. Hong Myung-bo's team is facing a scenario that Croatia can seize: 'advancing to the 32nd teams even with a draw.' If Croatia secures this scenario, South Korea's ranking will also drop.

Group K is at least a group where South Korea can still hold some hope. The result of the match between third-place Democratic Republic of the Congo (1 point) and bottom-placed Uzbekistan (0 points) is crucial. FIFA rankings show the Democratic Republic of the Congo at 46th and Uzbekistan at 50th. However, the Democratic Republic of the Congo will advance to the 32nd teams unconditionally if they win. Even if they remain in third place without surpassing Portugal, the Democratic Republic of the Congo will accumulate 4 points, crossing the cut line for third-place teams to reach the 32nd teams.

Uzbekistan can mathematically compete for advancement to the 32nd teams through third place if they defeat the Democratic Republic of the Congo. However, unless they achieve a decisive victory that can overturn their significantly negative goal difference of -7, they will inevitably fall behind in the competition among third-place teams. For South Korea, they need either a victory by Uzbekistan or a draw between the two teams, but the key factor is the motivation of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which will advance to the 32nd teams if they win. A victory by the Democratic Republic of the Congo against Uzbekistan will inevitably be another piece of desperate news for South Korea.

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*This content was translated by AI.